The next prime ministers: who can replace Barnier as head of the French cabinet
The French parliament voted by a majority in favor of a vote of no confidence in the cabinet of Prime Minister Michel Barnier, forcing him and the government to resign. Despite the antagonism between the left-wing coalition of the New Popular Front and the right-wing Rassemblement Nationale, the latter still supported the vote of no confidence passed by the Socialists. At the same time, it is unlikely that both the left and the right will show the same unanimity regarding the new prime minister, whom Macron has yet to choose. Experts interviewed by Izvestia are confident that the president will try to use the crisis in his favor by acting as the supreme arbiter. The Izvestia article tells about the new round of political crisis in France and possible candidates for the post of the head of the Cabinet of Ministers.
The end of Michel Barnier's government
On November 4, the national assembly voted by a majority of votes for a vote of no confidence in the government of Michel Barnier. It was the proposal put to a vote by the left-wing coalition of the New Popular Front that was approved. In favor of it voted 331 deputies, including representatives of the "National Union". Thus Marine Le Pen kept her promise to support the left. Michel Barnier became the second prime minister in the history of the Fifth Republic, who received a vote of no confidence, forcing him to resign. In 1962, the same fate befell Georges Pompidou. President Emmanuel Macron's address to the nation is expected on December 5 at 22:00 Moscow time.
Recall that the reason to express no confidence in the Prime Minister and his government was Michel Barnier's attempt to approve the social security budget bypassing the Parliament, using for this purpose the constitutional article 49.3. He was forced to take this extreme measure by the opposition's refusal to agree on a number of articles of the budget. At the same time, Barnier could not but realize the risks, since in case of using Article 49.3, the Constitution gives parliamentarians the right to limit the arbitrariness of the head of government by passing a vote of no confidence.
Speaking in parliament on Dec. 4, right-wing leader Marine Le Pen criticized Michel Barnier's supporters for "intransigence, sectarianism and dogmatism" that prevented him from making concessions to the opposition. "The worst policy would be not to censor such a budget and such a government <...>. The time for great change is not far off," she said, calling on Emmanuel Macron to resign. The politician emphasized that her party is forced in this situation to support the extreme left, whose ideas are destructive to the unity, security and prosperity of the country.
However, both Barnier and Macron hoped to the last for disagreements in the opposition. For example, Elisabeth Born, who served as head of the cabinet from May 2022 to January 2024, has used Article 49.3 more than 20 times and the opposition has never managed to stand united and vote for a vote of no confidence. While on a visit to Saudi Arabia, Macron said bluntly on December 3 that he "does not believe in a vote of no confidence."
Michel Barnier, for his part, declared the responsibility of deputies for the future of France, because, in his opinion, the resignation of the government will only exacerbate the economic crisis in the country. And here he is not far from the truth. Thus, the state budget deficit in 2024 will amount to 6.1% of GDP. According to forecasts, the country's domestic debt by the end of the year will amount to approximately €3.3 trillion and will be equal to 115% of GDP, compared to 110.7% at the end of the first quarter of this year.
The Prime Minister, in particular, warned that if the government resigns and the budget for 2025 is not adopted, France will enter the new year with the existing budget, that is, without adjustments for inflation. And this will seriously hit the wallets of more than 18 million French people. Still, just before the vote of no confidence, deputies in the National Assembly were able to agree on a text defining the amendments to be made to the budget at the end of the year, taking into account the budget deficit of 6.1% of GDP. "We do not want to disrupt the work of public institutions. There will be no 'shutdown' at the end of this year or at the beginning of next year," said Matthias Renaud, deputy of the "National Association".
The decision to prevent the paralysis of the state machine in this case is quite logical. Otherwise, Emmanuel Macron would have had the right to use Article XVI of the French Constitution, which gives the head of state extraordinary powers. In particular, he would have been able to make decisions that fall within the competence of the parliament, especially with regard to civil liberties.
According to French political scientist Bertrand Scholler, getting the opportunity to use this mechanism is Macron's cherished dream, as it would allow him to "settle scores with his political opponents." But even without invoking this article, Barnier's resignation will again give the president the opportunity to act as supreme arbiter.
- Macron emerges from each crisis stronger, each election only making him stronger. He shows that he is the only one who works, the only one worthy of his place. He wants the others to think they are creating chaos, whereas he can come in and set things right. And this time too, he will try to present himself as the savior of the nation from the incompetence of other people," he told Izvestia.
Who could become the new prime minister
Of course, a new government will be appointed at some point and the 2025 budget will be adopted. The only question is how quickly it will happen, given how long it took to agree on Michel Barnier's candidacy. By the way, the latter has already rejected the possibility of his re-nomination for the post. At the same time, citing the president's entourage, France Télévisions reported on December 3 that Macron is not considering a repeat of the summer scenario, when the president accepted the resignation of Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, but the government and the head of the Cabinet himself continued to perform their duties until the appointment of the Barnier government.
According to Agence France-Presse, among the possible candidates for the post of prime minister are the names of centrist and leader of the "Democratic Movement" Francois Bayrou, who previously served as high commissioner for budget planning, as well as the current Minister of the Armed Forces Sebastien Lecornu. The French newspaper Le Figaro notes that both Bayrou and Lecornu may find common ground with the representatives of the "National Union". The head of the Hauts-de-France region, Xavier Bertrand, a representative of the center-right Republicans party, is also mentioned. Bertrand was Minister of Health in the government of Dominique de Villepin and Minister of Labor in the cabinet of Francois Fillon. However, even before Barnier's appointment, Bertrand's candidacy was blocked by Marine Le Pen, so it is unlikely that the Rassemblement Nationale will want to see him as head of government now.
As for the coalition of the left, as before, the main candidate for the post of Prime Minister from the "New Popular Front" remains Lucie Castets, former finance adviser to the mayor of Paris. Recall that her candidacy was rejected by Macron in the summer. If we talk about the sentiments within the parties that make up the "New Popular Front", the Party of Socialists dreams of a left-wing government that will be open to compromise with other parties and will not resort to Article 49.3. Party Chairman Olvie Faure ruled out supporting the candidacy of Socialist Bernard Kasnev. "Unconquered France" Jean-Luc Melanchon insists on the candidacy of Lucie Castets and at the same time demands Macron's resignation.
Alexei Chikhachev, a senior lecturer at the Department of European Studies at St. Petersburg State University and an expert at RIAC and the Valdai Club, did not rule out that Macron might compromise and appoint a prime minister from the left.
- He may do this in order to discredit the leftists, so that they get a bump in the road and approach the possible new early parliamentary elections weakened. Although, of course, the last thing Macron wants is to coexist with a leftist prime minister. He would rather coexist with an extreme right-wing prime minister. In any case, with Barnier's resignation, the situation will roll back to July 2024 and the months of his premiership will be, in fact, simply lost. The long process of forming a cabinet will begin again and most likely it will not have support in parliament either. Even if it is a left-wing cabinet, it still turns out that two-thirds of the parliament will be against this government and there will be a threat of a new vote of no confidence. The president will once again play the role of an arbitrator and a republican monarch," he said.
Finally, a so-called technical government headed by a neutral and non-politicized figure is possible. Unlike Italy, where Mario Draghi, chairman of the Bank of Italy, became such a prime minister in 2021, France has no such precedents in recent history. According to Le Figaro, the candidacy of Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Gallo was already discussed at the Elysee Palace this summer, but the high-ranking official declined at the time, citing the fact that it would be difficult for him to counter the cries of the "Unconquered France" deputies in the national assembly.
As Alexei Chikhachev notes, a technical government cannot be a guarantee of a way out of the current crisis, as it will also have to gain the support of certain political forces in order to promote its bills. And at the moment, it is impossible to say which forces these will be.
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