Analyst assessed Saxo Bank's forecast of a possible fall of the dollar

From Saxo Bank's forecasts for 2025, we can agree that investing in the euro and especially in gold may be more attractive than investing in the U.S. dollar, Natalia Milchakova, lead analyst at Freedom Finance Global, told Izvestia on December 4.

On the eve of Saxo Bank published forecasts for the next year, according to which, including against the background of the next administration of the U.S. White House of large tariffs on imports and reducing the budget deficit, the market of cryptocurrencies will increase four times (up to $10 trillion), and the dollar will fall by 20% against major currencies and 30% against gold.

According to Milchakova, the forecasts look too pessimistic. She drew attention to the fact that the authors themselves call their New Year forecasts shocking.

"Recall that a year ago the experts of this bank predicted for 2024 that a barrel of oil will rise in price to $150, and in the United States will end capitalism, but everything happened exactly the opposite - the election of the U.S. president was won by capitalist and billionaire Donald Trump, and a barrel of Brent oil is now worth less than half of the price predicted by them. What we can agree with from the forecast for 2025 is that investments in the euro and especially in gold may be more attractive than investments in the U.S. dollar," the expert said.

She also agreed that sharp statements by Donald Trump, who will already officially assume the office of the US president next year, especially in terms of foreign trade and relations with the BRICS countries, primarily China, will lead to sharp fluctuations in the US dollar.

"We expect the euro to rise against the dollar next year, but not by 20%, but only by 10-15% of current prices, i.e. $1.15-1.2 per euro next year we expect, but we do not believe the euro to the dollar can rise higher than to $1.2. The eurozone economy has stagnated this year and will continue to stagnate next year, although its growth rate in 2025 is expected to be higher than this year, so we are not expecting a rapid rally in the euro," - said Milchakova.

At the same time, she added that the exchange value of gold is expected to grow by 25-30%, as this precious metal is the strongest competitor to the dollar as the most inflation-proof and reliable investment. The growth in demand for gold will be facilitated by the expected volatility of the U.S. dollar next year, the analyst emphasized.

"The cryptocurrency market is very risky, quotes of bitcoin and other non-state digital currencies can rise and fall many times in short periods of time. Increasing its volume many times will depend, in our opinion, not only on Trump, but on the extent to which the world, or at least in the main financial and investment centers of the world, will relax the regulation of cryptocurrencies," the expert also told.

She suggested that the legalization of at least some of the most liquid cryptocurrencies in Russia, such as bitcoin, which, most likely, will be able to be traded by qualified investors after some time, will contribute to the growth of quotations of this cryptocurrency.

"The legalization of mining in Russia has already had a rather favorable impact on bitcoin quotes, which has risen in price by 41% in just one month. We believe that bitcoin in the next year can grow to $120-150 thousand per bitcoin in case of favorable developments regarding the regulation of cryptocurrencies, but it is also possible, if other countries start tightening the screws on cryptocurrencies, its fall to $80 thousand and even lower. In any case, cryptocurrencies are a very risky asset and it is better to apply to this market only qualified and experienced stock traders," Milchakova concluded.

In September, the director of the Industrial Mining Association Sergey Bezdelov at the session "Industrial Mining" of the Eastern Economic Forum said that in 2023, 54 thousand bitcoins were mined in Russia. They can bring the treasury taxes in the amount of 50 billion rubles on the horizon of several years.