Car dealers predict further decline in car sales in Russia

In Russia, at the end of 2024, there is a long-term trend towards a decline in new car sales, which will continue in 2025, at the end of which the market will fall by 10-20%. Andrey Terlyukevich, General Director of AutoSpecCenter Group of Companies, shared this forecast with Izvestia.

According to the specialist, the main reason for the decline in sales in November was the high key rate. Tightening monetary policy made leasing products for legal entities unprofitable, which led to a reduction in corporate sales, and high interest rates on loans sharply limited the range of buyers among individuals.

"In the first quarter of 2025, the decline in sales will continue. The market will now reduce its inventories by all means, as financing warehouses at the current key rate for 1.5 months leads to direct losses. And this is a joint task for all market participants. Dealers cannot do without importers' support. Importers without dealers will also not be able to sell off already produced cars. The year 2024 will definitely end with sales growth by 2023. But sales in 2025 are likely to be 10-20% lower than 2024," Terlyukevich told Izvestia.

The demand was also negatively affected by the increase in the utilization fee, which led to an increase in car prices. However, the weakening of the ruble has so far had little effect on demand and the cost of cars in warehouses, but will definitely lead to higher prices for new imported cars, the interlocutor believes.

In turn, CEO of GC "Avtodom" Andrey Olkhovsky emphasized that the key rate of the Bank of Russia at 21% is a turning point for buying a car. With further growth of the key rate, a significant cooling of the market is expected, as well as difficulties at dealers.

"But most importantly - the main victims will be those customers who have already purchased a car and may face problems in service, as some car dealers in an attempt to save on everything will cease to maintain standards of service quality," - added Olkhovsky.

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November 4, it became known that sales of new passenger cars in Russia in November 2024 were 28.8% lower than in October of the same year. Thus, in mid-autumn in the country was sold 171.2 thousand new passenger cars, and in its last month - 121.9 thousand.