Trump's special envoy for Ukraine has prepared his peace plan. Parsing
US President-elect Donald Trump has chosen retired General Keith Kellogg as his special envoy for Ukraine. The latter has developed his own plan to resolve the Ukrainian crisis, which includes incentives and ways to put pressure on both Kiev and Moscow. Izvestia reports on how the United States sees the ways to end the conflict and whether Russia will accept this plan.
What Kellogg proposes
- Kellogg shared his vision of the conflict in Ukraine in April 2024 in an article for the analytical center America First Policy Institute, created by former employees of the Trump administration. The article was co-authored by Frederick Fletz, former chief of staff of the U.S. National Security Council under Trump. An excerpt in the form of the "Kellogg Plan" was published by the Center for Eastern Studies (OSW) in late October, but it began to be discussed after Kellogg was selected by Trump.
- The first point of the plan is to end Russia's political isolation, establish diplomatic contact with Moscow and refuse to "demonize" Russian President Vladimir Putin. Kellogg goes on to argue that a ceasefire and peace talks should be achieved by pressuring both Russia and Ukraine.
- The plan lists incentives against Russia. Kellogg suggests postponing the issue of Ukraine's NATO membership for an extended period (10 years is acceptable), retaining all new territories for Russia, partially lifting sanctions and the possibility of lifting them completely if Russia agrees to a peace agreement acceptable to Ukraine. Continued military aid to Ukraine, strengthening its defense and providing long-term security guarantees are listed as pressure measures.
- As incentives for Ukraine, Kellogg proposes not to recognize territorial changes (provided that it refuses to try to return the territories by force), not to impose any restrictions on its sovereignty, to continue military assistance in the form of interest-free loans and security guarantees, as well as to impose duties on Russian energy resources and direct the proceeds to the reconstruction of Ukraine. To influence Kiev if it refuses to negotiate, it is proposed to cut off military support.
How realistic is the plan
- The Kellogg Plan should only be taken as a preliminary draft for now, not as a ready-made tool for settlement. Neither Trump nor Kellogg will hold official positions in the White House for another month and a half, until January 20. Until then, statements made by his team are populism and an attempt to please voters awaiting the first steps of the new administration. Trump is expected to reduce the cost of maintaining the conflict, and the "Kellogg Plan" meets this requirement.
- Kellogg's outlined proposals are only a basic framework that expresses the thoughts of only select members of the incoming administration and that Trump will not necessarily adopt as his policy. Between now and January, the plan could undergo changes in either direction, based on the priorities the Trump administration identifies.
- A more realistic option is for Trump to continue Joe Biden 's Ukraine policy with some adjustments. The president-elect will continue to support military action and economic confrontation, but will shift the main burden of support for Kiev to Europe so that the US military-industrial complex receives orders from Brussels.
- It cannot be ruled out that Trump, while cutting military aid to Ukraine, will not abandon it completely. The U.S. will focus on providing long-range weapons to keep the conflict at an acceptable level for itself while getting the rest of the spending cut by shifting it to Europe.
Whether the Kellogg Plan is of interest to Russia
- Russia's strength in the Kellogg Plan is the suspension of arms deliveries to Kiev in order to push it into negotiations. At the same time, Russia has repeatedly emphasized that it is already ready for a diplomatic settlement, so US coercive measures will not be enacted. It is also in Russia's interest not to consider Ukraine's NATO membership, as this would weaken the threat from the West.
- Otherwise, however, the plan does not meet Russian interests and does not take into account current realities. In particular, one of the points is to recognize Russia's territorial acquisitions, but they are already under its control. The plan assumes that the territories will never be officially recognized by Kiev, U.S. sanctions will remain in place, and Ukraine will be maintained as a military state. This nullifies the possibility of any compromise.
- The essence of the "Kellogg Plan" boils down to the fact that Russia should stop the advance of its troops, which are occupying new settlements every day. This will only benefit Ukraine, which is in a losing position. The plan could only become relevant if both sides were at an impasse, unable to further influence the course of the conflict.
- For any peace plan for Ukraine to be credible and practical, it must take into account geopolitical realities and Russia's security, sovereignty and territorial integrity interests. A signed peace agreement should not result in a more paramilitary and dangerous Ukraine ready to violate the treaty 10 years from now. "The Kellogg Plan" cannot ensure this and does not meet Russia's requirements, making it unrealizable. It can only be a step towards the start of negotiations, but Russia will not be able to discuss the conditions prescribed in it.
When preparing the material, Izvestia communicated with and took into account the opinions of:
- Bogdan Bezpalko, member of the Council on Interethnic Relations under the President of the Russian Federation, deputy director of the Center for Ukrainian and Belarusian Studies at Lomonosov Moscow State University;
- member of the Public Chamber of the Russian Federation, political scientist Alexander Asafov;
- political scientist Oleksiy Yaroshenko.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
