Continued exploring: the Kremlin sees no grounds for negotiations with Kiev
There are no grounds for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine yet, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitriy Peskovhas told Izvestiya . According to him, many countries have offered to become a platform for such a dialog, in particular Qatar , and the Kremlin is grateful to Doha for its readiness to become a mediator. However, the positions of Moscow and Kiev remain opposite. However, experts believe that with the return of Donald Trump to the White House, Ukraine's views on possible conditions for ending the conflict may become more flexible. For example, Kiev's idea of reaching the 1991 borders is clearly losing relevance. How the situation in Ukraine may change when the new US president comes to power - in the Izvestia article.
Mediators in the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine
The topic of conflict resolution in Ukraine remains one of the most discussed in the West. Especially after the victory of Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election, who promised to resolve the conflict before returning to the White House. The new NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte even warned Trump of a "dire threat" to the US if Kiev signs an unfavorable peace agreement.
However, any agreements on Ukraine are apparently still far away. Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Izvestia that there are no grounds for negotiations between Moscow and Kiev at the moment.
Russian Presidential Spokesman Dmitry Peskov
- There are no grounds for negotiations yet," he said.
At the same time, Russia has repeatedly declared its openness to dialog. And a number of countries, including Qatar, are offering their mediation services.
- Many countries declare their readiness to provide their territory," Peskov said. - Indeed, the emirate is very active in terms of mediation services on a variety of subjects, and does it effectively. In addition, our bilateral relations with Qatar are developing excellently. And we are grateful to all countries for such goodwill, including Qatar.
On November 27 and 28, two ceremonies were held at the Qatari Embassy in Moscow to return children to relatives in Russia and Ukraine. In addition, the Emirate is now discussing the expansion of its areas of mediation - this applies in particular to the exchange of prisoners of war.
Qatar Embassy in Moscow, ceremony to return children to relatives in Russia and Ukraine
Other Gulf monarchies, primarily Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are also taking part in solving humanitarian problems between Russia and Ukraine. Vladimir Putin has previously described Riyadh as a comfortable place to hold a potential meeting to resolve the Ukrainian conflict.
- If such events are organized in Saudi Arabia - the place itself is quite comfortable for us. That is not the question. The question is what to discuss," the Russian president said in October.
Moscow and Kiev immediately after the start of the SWO held talks in other countries - first in Belarus and then in Turkey. In 2022, these negotiations resulted in the Istanbul agreements, which were initialed by the Ukrainian side. However, Kiev later refused to dialog, and even a decree was adopted prohibiting negotiations with the Russian leadership.
After that, an attempt to provide a negotiating platform was made by Switzerland. In June this year, a "peace summit" on Ukraine was held in Bürgenstock, which, however, failed due to the absence of Russia and China. The Russian Federation ignored participation in this meeting because it discussed the points of the "Zelensky formula", which implies, among other things, the return of Ukraine to the 1991 borders. Moscow has repeatedly noted that Bern cannot be called a neutral party because of its openly pro-Ukrainian stance.
Ukraine Summit, Switzerland, June 16, 2024
Some experts agree that none of these three countries will decide the outcome of the Ukrainian conflict. Switzerland is not suitable for the Russian Federation because of its anti-Russian policy, and Belarus is not suitable for the West and Ukraine because of its close relations with Moscow. Turkey, on the one hand, takes a rather equidistant position from the parties to the conflict, but one should not forget that Ankara remains a full-fledged member of the North Atlantic Alliance. Moreover, the AFU is actively using Turkish-made drones. Against this background, Saudi Arabia, Qatar or the UAE look like optimal contenders to host the potential summit.
However, there is also China, which together with Brazil proposed its "peace plan" in May this year. In addition, these two countries initiated the creation of the "Friends of Peace" group during the UN General Assembly - this project should contribute to a peaceful resolution of the Ukrainian crisis.
African countries also came forward with a peace initiative back in 2023. A mission led by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa visited first Ukraine and then the Russian Federation, developing 10 points for a settlement, including the need for negotiations and diplomacy, de-escalation of the conflict on both sides, security guarantees, and humanitarian support for the victims.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban
Hungary sought to play a mediating role in resolving the crisis. In the summer, the country's Prime Minister Viktor Orban carried out a "peace mission," making visits to Ukraine, Russia, China, and the United States. The purpose of the visits was to discuss ways to resolve the issue diplomatically. However, as Orbán himself admitted, his mission was more aimed at launching the very discussion on the resolution of the crisis.
- The initiative of China and Brazil has the best chance of realization. They do not put forward specific venues for negotiations. They are talking more about substance, which we are generally comfortable with. Thevenue will depend on their proposal, " Vladimir Vinokurov, editor-in-chief of the Diplomatic Service magazine and professor at the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry, told Izvestia.
How the negotiation situation may change with Trump's arrival
At the same time, Ukraine and its Western partners continue to raise the stakes in the military confrontation with Russia. A serious step toward escalation was the approval by the US, UK and France to use long-range weapons to strike deep into Russian territory. Russia's response was to strike a military plant in Dnepropetrovsk on Nov. 21 with a medium-range Oreshnik ballistic missile. NATO countries are not ready to de-escalate: On December 3, the alliance's foreign ministers gathered in Brussels for a two-day summit to discuss next steps in the conflict.
It remains unclear what will happen after Joe Biden's administration leaves the White House and Donald Trump takes his place. His inauguration will take place on January 20, 2025.
- Trump keeps calling Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, and apparently they are discussing approaches to resolving the conflict in Ukraine. Orban is sure to play a big role. Scholz has also recently tried to get involved. But the final decision will be made by Trump based on the work that the recently appointed special representative for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, will do," former Ukrainian parliamentary deputy Oleg Tsarev told Izvestia.
Journalists call Kellogg a loyal Trump supporter. Earlier, OSW Report published a plan drawn up by him in April this year. In particular, it contains a postponement of the issue of Ukraine's NATO membership for a longer period of time (at least 10 years), retention of the territories under Russia's control, as well as gradual lifting of sanctions and normalization of relations with the United States (subject to the conclusion of peace agreements acceptable to Kiev).
It is noteworthy that the Ukrainian leadership has recently changed its rhetoric on territorial concessions to Russia for the sake of joining NATO. Recently, Volodymyr Zelensky recognized the impossibility of returning the lost territories militarily. In addition, he admitted that Ukraine could join the North Atlantic Alliance without the validity of Article 5 of the NATO charter (on collective defense) on the entire territory.
- As the situation is changing, and not in Ukraine's favor, the idea of going back to the 1991 borders is losing its relevance," Valdai Club expert and RIAC scientific director Andrei Kortunov told Izvestia. - Now the West is already talking about some kind of freezing of the conflict, that the territories should be returned diplomatically and, perhaps, over a long period of time.
Andrei Kortunov notes that after the arrival of Donald Trump, the United States will tighten control over military aid to Ukraine and will try to shift the main burden of support for Kiev to European countries. Already, Western media are reporting that discussions have begun in Europe about whether European countries can deploy their troops in Ukraine to enforce any possible ceasefire.
As for Russia, its position is unlikely to change significantly in the coming months. Moscow opposes freezing the conflict.
- We have no reason to believe that the Russian position is shifting towards greater flexibility - there are no official indications of this. So far, all the main goals that were formulated this summer remain in place, " Kortunov said.
Russia presented its position on resolving the crisis in Ukraine in June this year. Among the conditions for launching the peace process are the complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the territory of the Luhansk People's Republic, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhya regions (and within their administrative borders, which existed at the time of their entry into Ukraine), Ukraine's official renunciation of its aspirations to join NATO, the demilitarization and denazification of the country, Kiev's recognition of the new regions (including Crimea and Sevastopol) as part of the Russian Federation, and the lifting of all Western sanctions.
