Inflation in Russia will accelerate to 9% by the end of the year

Inflation will rise to 9% per annum by the end of 2024, according to five out of eight experts and market participants interviewed by Izvestia. Two analysts are sure that the growth will be around 8.5-9%, while another one was more pessimistic - 9-10%.

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According to the November forecast of the Central Bank, inflation at the end of the year was expected to be 8-8.5%. Experts worsened their expectations due to the weakening of the ruble. In the last week of November, it fell sharply against the dollar - it reached Br114 on the Forex market.

The influence of the national currency rate on price growth is due to several factors. Thus, its weakening contributes to the growth of inflationary expectations of the population. People will try to spend money on consumption faster, before the prices for goods have not increased even more, said Olga Belenkaya, head of macroeconomic analysis department of FG Finam.

"Prices on the domestic market of imported goods and services are determined by supply and demand. If the solvent demand is not large enough, it will not be able to absorb imported goods at higher prices. In this case, the importer will have to sell the goods at the previous cost, and the ruble depreciation will lead to the reduction of the importer's profit margin", - explained Dmitry Golubkov, Director for Macroeconomic Analysis of OTP Bank.

The weakening of the ruble at the end of November will lead to an even greater tightening of the Central Bank's monetary policy, according to Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global. In her opinion, the regulator's Board of Directors will increase the key rate by 2 p.p. at once at the meeting on December 20. - Up to 23% per annum.

Read more in the exclusive material of "Izvestia":

Estimated spending: inflation will accelerate to 9% by the end of the year