The expert predicted a rise in the Central Bank rate in December and then a pause in its change

On December 20, the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) may decide to raise the key rate, but this increase may be the last one, according to Dmitry Skryabin, portfolio manager of Alfa Capital Management Company. He told Izvestia on December 2.

He did not rule out that the rate level could be raised to 23%, but clarified that there will still be operational statistics before the meeting, which could affect the regulator's decision.

"The rate is likely to be raised again in December, but this hike could be the last. There is less and less room for a rate hike without serious damage to the economy. The central bank and the government will have to find a balance between the growth of the economy and the speed of reducing inflation to the target 4%. Therefore, at the first meeting in 2025, the Central Bank may switch to a pause in rate hikes, which would be an important turning point in the market trend," Skryabin concluded.

Raising the key rate: why it is necessary and what it affects

The monetary tightening cycle is forecast to continue

Earlier, on October 25, the Central Bank raised the key rate to 21%. At the same time, the regulator allowed further rate increases, noting that pro-inflationary effects cause additional budget expenditures and expansion of the federal budget deficit.