Everybody out: Latvia is facing a demographic crisis
Latvia's population is moving away and dying out. The country is experiencing the worst demographic situation in 100 years. Officials propose one after another new programs to raise the birth rate, but they are useless: in practice, the state cannot even offer decent childcare benefits. The young and energetic are leaving the country. Details - in the material of "Izvestia"....
Period of layoffs
Last year, the population decreased in seven EU countries - Poland, Greece, Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Italy and Latvia. And the fastest decline was recorded in Latvia - by 0.6% (by 11.1 thousand people). The reason for the decline in the population of this country is the negative natural increase. Although the balance of migration in 2023 in Latvia was positive, due to the excess of mortality over birth rate (by 0.7%) the result was negative. Statisticians state that in 2021 Latvia was at the EU average level in the number of births per thousand inhabitants (and in 2016 even in fourth place), but then it started to lag behind.
Last year, 8.2 children per 1 thousand inhabitants were born in the whole EU, while in Latvia - 7.7. So the birth rate here is declining faster than in the EU as a whole. The total fertility rate in Latvia fell from 1.74 (in 2016) to 1.36 last year. For normal reproduction of the population this indicator should be at the level of 2.1-2.2. However, in the rest of the EU it is also far from the "break-even point": in 2022, the average EU coefficient was 1.46: France with 1.79 was the leader, Malta with 1.08 was the anti-leader.
Last year, 28,031 people died in Latvia. This is 2,700 (8.8%) less than in 2022 and 19% less compared to the "covid" 2021. Still, Latvia, with its 14.9 deaths per thousand population, was in 2023 in second place in the EU, ahead of only Bulgaria: 15.7 deaths per thousand inhabitants. The population would have decreased even more if not for migration: in 2023, its balance remained positive in Latvia, although barely. 18.7 thousand people entered the country and 16.3 thousand left. Compared to 2022, there were about half as many immigrants (38.7 thousand the year before last), and emigrants - by 2.3%. At the same time, the inflow was largely provided by citizens of Ukraine fleeing the hostilities.
This year has confirmed the negative trend. In the first nine months of 2024, 9716 children were born in Latvia - 1419 or 12.7% less than in the same period of 2023. Over the five-year period, the decrease amounted to more than 20%. According to the forecasts of the EU statistical office Eurostat, the population of Latvia will continue to decline, and in the period from 2022 to 2070 it will decrease by a third - to 1.3 million people. European statisticians remind that the natural increase in the republic has been negative since 1991: if then about 2.7 million people lived in Latvia, now - less than 1.9 million. And the latter figure is doubtful, as many Latvians, having moved to the countries of Western Europe, continue to "on paper" listed as living in their home country.
And since 1993, the share of residents over working age in Latvia has been steadily exceeding the share of children and teenagers. "This means that in the future the number of working-age population will be even smaller, and demographic pressure will increase," reads the report of the Latvian Ministry of Welfare. The report notes that the decline in the number of residents has been significantly influenced by migration, which has increased the strain on the social security system. Therefore, the country is expected to see a significant increase in demand for health care and long-term care services.
In fact, since 1990, Latvia has not achieved the population replacement rate necessary for normal replacement of generations. "The fertility rate is declining at an accelerating rate and is the lowest in the last century," the report says. As the population ages, a small number of workers will have to cover the cost of supporting a large number of elders, as well as health care and long-term care needs. To improve demographics, the report said, access to housing and child care services must be improved, and the quality of health care must be improved. So far, this is very poorly handled, and there is no suggestion of radical improvement.
Where to get the labor force?
Eurostat has recently issued a new forecast - that the number of people living in different regions of Latvia may decrease by almost half. Thus, in the period from 2023 to 2051 the number of inhabitants of Latgale is expected to decrease by 41%, Vidzeme - by 39%, Kurzeme - by 36% and Zemgale - by 34%. The least affected region will be Riga and its surroundings, where the population will decrease by 18%. Brussels has estimated that Latvia's rural population will shrink by 8% per year. The situation is already particularly bad in Latgale (the eastern region of Latvia), where since 2004 there have been 100 thousand fewer inhabitants.
Now in Latgale even large cities of Daugavpils and Rezekne are striking with deserted streets. In smaller settlements, and in rural areas the situation is even more depressing. And there are especially few young people here now. When asked why local businessmen talk about the lack of labor force, if the region has high unemployment (in August 2024 it was 10.5%, while the average for Latvia is 5.3%), the head of the organization "Latgale Entrepreneurship Center" Andris Kutsins answers exhaustively: "Our region differs significantly from others in the age structure of the population. We have older people."
According to him, many Latgalians are no longer physically able to last eight hours of hard work and therefore do not meet the requirements of most employers. "Well, many people look after the elderly, and they can't go somewhere else for the whole day either," Kucins told Latvijas Radio 4. Businessman Tom Andersons, CEO of Nexis Fibers and member of the council of the regional branch of the Latvian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, confirmed: "At our company, the average age of a worker is over 40. This can be seen in their productivity and stamina when doing physical work".
How to fill the labor shortage? Welfare Minister Uldis Augulis calls for hiring people with disabilities. Also, he says, he might consider reducing the childcare leave provided by the state: but only if kindergarten services are provided for children as young as one year old. This proposal has naturally aroused the indignation of parents. However, Augulis warns that the alternative would be an influx of migrants into Latvia, a prospect that is very disliked by the country's most influential nationalist parties.
There are also plans to increase the childcare allowance to €377 (currently €171). However, Pēteris Leiskalns, an expert of the Latvian Employers' Confederation on social security, considers this increase insufficient: "In 2014, this allowance amounted to 60% of the minimum wage. Now it is only 24%. In order for the allowance to be adequate (price increase - "Izvestia"), it should amount to €420 this year. If we think that we need the pension system to work properly in 30 years, it will not be saved by moms who start working five months earlier. For this to happen, as many children must be born today as will be needed in the labor market in 22 years."
So far, according to Leiskalns, the situation is daunting. "Those born in the second half of the 80s reached the age to enter the labor market in 2008-2011. Just at that moment when the labor market could not accept them. That's why so many left," the expert notes. He reminds that during the economic crisis of 2008-2009, unemployment in Latvia reached 20%. In the same years, thousands of families left the country, who had children and loans taken in the "fat years" (as the country calls the period 2003-2007). (as the country calls the period 2003-2007). "A great many people left because their housing was taken away from them. In my opinion, this is the biggest mistake of the parliament - the fact that a moratorium on taking away mortgaged housing was not adopted at that time. It should not have been taken away," says Leishkalns.
They want to live, not survive
Inta Mierinja, professor and director of the Diaspora and Migration Research Center at the University of Latvia, says that people leave the country because they do not feel stability and prospects for themselves in their homeland. "The main reason why people leave and what surveys tell us is that they want to live, not survive. There are so many people who literally count money from one paycheck to the next. You know that you can't just walk into a store and buy everything you need," explains Mierinja.
In the meantime, the process of population replacement is beginning to take place in Latvia, not so fast yet. Latvian employers are increasingly employing non-EU third-country nationals, and it is not only Ukrainian refugees. "We first tried to work with Ukrainians, but for most of them Latvia is just a transit point to go further to Europe. At the moment we also have workers from Indonesia. They came under the tsar, they came under the USSR, they came under free Latvia. If we want to develop and expand production, it is the only and only imported labor force," says Uldis Misins, chairman of the board of the Avoti woodworking company.
Former Prime Minister Krisjanis Karinsh warned in spring 2023 that if the coalition does not solve the issue of changing migration policy and liberalize the rules for importing guest workers, the second option - raising the retirement age - is left to choose from. The retirement age in Latvia is gradually increasing, and from 2025 it will reach the age of 65. However, it is impossible to raise it indefinitely - for obvious reasons. "We already have so many men who do not live up to the retirement age! If we raise the retirement age, most men will not even live a year in retirement, except, perhaps, for former officials," says opposition politician Andrei Klementyev. The oppositionist adds that in Latvia everything is very bad with medical care of the male population, with prevention of diseases peculiar to men.
In general, according to him, Latvian men rarely visit doctors. "This is due to the fact that they are the driving force of the family, they have to work harder. Therefore, if we raise the retirement age, our men have no chance at all to live in retirement," the politician warns. Against the background of the aging and extinction of Latvians, there is an influx of migrants. All citizens of Riga unanimously agree that recently their city has seen more swarthy faces than ever before. People from Asia are opening kebab shops in large numbers and taking jobs that do not require qualifications, such as delivering groceries to apartments. A new phenomenon for Latvia - in July, a gang of skinheads attacking Asian food vendors was detained in Riga.
It should be said that the demographic crisis in Latvia has another reason, which they try not to publicize. Recently, the oppression of the Russian community has grown to such an extent that these 35% of the population live in a state of continuous stress. Naturally, people have begun to leave en masse. Andrei Sinyavsky is one of 137 migrants from Latvia who settled in the Pskov region in the first nine months of 2024 alone. In a conversation with Izvestia, he said that the last argument in favor of leaving was the complete elimination of Russian education in Latvia. "I have two sons of primary school age. Seeing how they suffer at their school, learning in a non-native language, I realized: it's time to save the children. I want them to get a normal education and be able to count on something more in life than becoming loaders or janitors. And I was tired of this kind of life myself, because a Russian can live in Latvia now only if he behaves quieter than a mouse and walks with his eyes in the floor. I wanted to feel human again. As far as I know, many families are now moving from Latvia to Russia. They are leaving quietly, without announcing it, so as not to get into any trouble," says Sinyavsky.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
