Will Europe dare to send troops to Ukraine. Parsing

European Union countries are increasingly discussing the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine. The election of U.S. President Donald Trump, who promised to limit military aid to Kiev, is pushing European governments toward such a step. To what extent Europe is ready to participate in a conflict with Russia and what tasks the military may be assigned - in Izvestia's analysis.

What is known about sending troops

- Back in February 2024, French President Emmanuel Macron mentioned for the first time that he did not consider sending foreign troops to Ukraine impossible. This caused a storm of discussion among the political elite in the West. Although the establishment rejected the idea, Macron did not retract his words, which shows that he still received a certain amount of support, and the discussion of such an option began.

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- The reason for talking about sending troops was the retreat of the Ukrainian military along the entire front line and the loss of key population centers. After almost a year, the situation for the AFU has not improved. The main problem for them is the shortage of personnel, which provoked talk of replacing losses with European soldiers.

- At the same time, NATO troops were actually present in Ukraine long before the start of the Strategic Defense Forces. They act as trainers, officer commanders who direct certain operations against Russia, and operators of sophisticated military equipment. In addition, the presence of individual mercenaries within the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), who come from different countries, has been noted (we told you more about which citizens of which states are fighting on Kiev's side for money here).

- One of the options under consideration was to send a contingent of NATO countries, supposedly acting not on behalf of the entire bloc, but independently. This is intended to protect the alliance from entering into a full-scale conflict with Russia, but to allow some of Ukraine's allies who are most ready for radical forms of support to carry out their intentions without requiring the same actions from less decisive partners. In such a scenario, Poland is usually mentioned as a potential participant.

- Analysts point out that talk of sending troops to Ukraine may be mere media speculation on a topic that is hotly debated. Serious discussion of this issue is impossible for the reason that this decision will have undesirable consequences for Europe itself in the form of a large-scale escalation of the conflict. In this regard, the reports about sending troops should be perceived as an element of informational assistance to Ukraine. It is intended to demonstrate a commitment to support Ukraine and boost its morale without actually taking action.

Shifting rhetoric and dispatch targets

- Over time, the rhetoric has changed and the dispatch of European troops has been talked about in a completely different way. There are proposals to form a peacekeeping contingent by European forces, which will be engaged in maintaining stability and security after the end of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. This will be one of the conditions for a peace agreement, which Ukraine is expected to be pushed towards by future US President Donald Trump after he takes office. His victory in the elections and his attitude to the conflict resolution became the reason to change the attitude of European states towards their participation in the conflict.

- According to these ideas, a coalition of European troops will be able to monitor the line of contact, ensuring control over compliance with the agreements. At the same time, the possibility of deploying troops even under such conditions is still supported by a minimum number of countries. The UK and France, as having the most extensive military forces in the region, are considered capable of doing so. Germany is not ready to send troops even in the case of a ceasefire, and Poland, the Scandinavian and Baltic states, if they want to contribute, do not have sufficient military strength.

- For the U.S., the deployment of European troops in Ukraine is the best option. They will no longer be directly invested in the conflict, but they will maintain a smoldering hot spot that they can use against Russia in the future. Trump will be able to fulfill his promise to bring peace without spending his own resources, and in the event of an emergency, blame Europe for being unable to fulfill its guarantees. At the same time, the possibility of the US sending its own troops is categorically rejected.

What consequences this will lead to

- The appearance of regular units of European countries in Ukraine will be perceived by Russia as their direct involvement in the conflict, which Moscow has already repeatedly warned about. Depending on what specific actions the Western countries will take, this will be the new level of escalation, which has already reached extreme heights since the beginning. The Russian Foreign Ministry explicitly states that the Western countries' plans to introduce a military contingent into Ukraine means even more involvement of the West in a direct clash with Russia.

- Much will also depend on how the US behaves should Europe find itself a war zone over its intention to help Ukraine. Trump has made it clear that he sees no need to fulfill former allied commitments to Europe and will not defend it on previous terms. The problems that will overwhelm Europe in case of escalation, it will have to solve on its own.

- If we consider the option of the European contingent performing a peacekeeping function, it will be negatively perceived by Russia, as one of the conditions for the conclusion of peace agreements is the non-aligned status of Ukraine, which will not use the military support of NATO countries and will not deploy foreign troops near the border with Russia.

In preparing the material, Izvestia spoke to and took into account the opinions of:

• Andrei Koshkin, head of the Department of Political Analysis and Social and Psychological Processes at the Plekhanov Russian Economic University and military expert;
• Professor of the Higher School of Economics Andrei Bystritsky;
• Pavel Seleznev, Professor of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Dean of the Faculty of International Economic Relations.