The expert named the reasons for the growth of the dollar exchange rate

There are several reasons for the sharp strengthening of the dollar against the ruble, including the formation of a liquidity deficit in the U.S. national currency. Evgeny Shatov, partner at Capital Lab, told Izvestia in detail on November 28.

"There are several reasons for the sharp strengthening of the dollar against the ruble. Firstly, the market has formed a deficit of dollar liquidity, as there is not enough repatriation of foreign currency earnings by exporters for the market. The imbalance occurs precisely when importers create demand for foreign currency, mainly generated within the internal currency circuit, while a commensurate saturation of the currency market does not occur due to the unwillingness or inability to repatriate foreign currency proceeds to Russia," he explained.

He noted that now in Russia the demand for currency within the Russian circuit is generated mainly (70-75%) by importers, while in developed countries the share of trade transactions in cross-border flows is only 1-5%.

According to him, a number of sanctions form fears that in the near future currency receipts from exporters due to their adaptation of payment chains may be limited, market participants are trying to more actively acquire currency for prompt settlement with counterparties. Due to the growing uncertainty, investors are beginning to hedge currency risks by actively purchasing dollars.

The dollar exchange rate has exceeded 108 rubles. And here's why

In addition, the ruble exchange rate is under pressure from the seasonal increase in demand for imports ahead of the New Year holidays, Shatov noted.

"Demand for the dollar in the world also rose slightly after Donald Trump's victory in the US election, as many experts expected a tightening of monetary policy from the new president, which should, in theory, lead to the strengthening of the US currency in the global market. Indeed, since the beginning of the month, the dollar futures on the ICE exchange have risen by more than 2.5%. However, the strengthening of the dollar against the ruble is still more of an internal story and is less correlated with the strengthening of the dollar index in the world", - said the expert.

Shatov specified that the average annual rate will be tending to 100 from the beginning of 2025, its return to the level below 100 is possible and probable on the fluctuations of import and export flows, but there will be no stable fixation in the range of Br90-95 under the current parameters. According to him, based on this, we should expect an average annual rate in the range of Br106-112 per dollar in the first half of 2025.

He also recalled that the Bank of Russia, in an effort to stabilize the exchange rate, decided to suspend purchases of foreign currency under the budget rule from November 28 to the end of the year.

Earlier in the day, Evan Golovanov, an expert on finance and investment, founder of the financial club "Multiplier", told "Izvestia" that the national currency exchange rate will stabilize in February next year. In his opinion, the dollar may trade around Br96-98 at the end of winter.