Expert predicted ruble strengthening in February 2025

In February 2025, the ruble exchange rate will stabilize, but in the long term it will weaken, said Evan Golovanov, an expert on finance and investment, founder of the financial club "Multiplier. He told "Izvestia" on November 28 that the dollar may be traded at the end of winter at the level of about Br96-98.

The expert noted that there is little constructive in panic forecasts about the beginning of a large-scale devaluation.

"In recent days, the ruble has really weakened. Many on the market have begun to say that it will continue to weaken, a large-scale devaluation will begin, etc., and this is said by the same actors who recently claimed that the ruble exchange rate will be stable. Most likely, this is due to the general market inertia," he said.

According to him, the ruble exchange rate is now most strongly influenced by geopolitics. With any geopolitical aggravations, some capitalists always try to withdraw money from the country. This is happening now. Nevertheless, it is not worth expecting that in the short term the ruble will continue to weaken and devaluation will begin.

"Now there is a situation when those factors, which have always played against the ruble, have become stronger. At the same time, the factors counteracting them, aimed at strengthening the national currency, have reduced their influence. There are still problems with payment for imports. In addition, the Bank of Russia has introduced relaxation of restrictions on the sale of foreign currency proceeds. Previously, these restrictions implied almost complete sale of foreign currency proceeds and it was deposited in large volumes. After the introduction of easing, these volumes have decreased," he added.

The dollar exchange rate has exceeded 108 rubles. And here's why

According to Golovanov, the ruble will stabilize by February 2025, as this period is traditionally strong for the Russian currency. According to him, the exchange rate may roll back to 96-98 rubles, possibly a little lower. He also noted the likelihood that the ruble will stabilize at a higher mark of about 100. Such a situation may occur if there is a currency panic now and people start buying up currency en masse.

"It is now the pre-New Year period, when currency is always in price. People are planning vacations, they need money for vacations, they buy gifts, appliances. Businesses, in turn, seek to close annual sales plans. Plus this year geopolitics has also overlapped with traditional events. In January, the demand for currency always decreases. In addition, the sanctions factor will play in favor of the ruble, and it will be more difficult for capital to leave the country. Therefore, by February we can expect stabilization of the exchange rate, as this is traditionally a strong period for the Russian currency. It is very difficult to give accurate forecasts here, as the currency market is unpredictable and depends heavily on external factors and geopolitics," the expert explained.

The financier did not rule out the possibility that the strengthening and stabilization of the ruble will begin now.

At the same time, the interlocutor of the publication emphasized that in the long term there is a trend for further weakening of the ruble. He believes that it will be a slow process, for years, but the rate may gradually rise above Br100.

On November 27, Mikhail Zeltser, stock market expert at "BKS Investment World" explained to "Izvestia" that the ruble exchange rate has declined under the influence of several factors, including the increased demand for foreign currency and the situation with geopolitics, which has been aggravated in recent weeks.

That day, the Central Bank (CBR) of the Russian Federation set the official dollar rate at 105 rubles, while the euro - 110.49. November 1, the dollar cost Br97, while the euro - Br105.5.