Experts predicted further decline in the MosBirch index

The Moscow Exchange Index may decline to 2-2.3 thousand points by the end of 2024. This opinion was expressed by experts in a conversation with "Izvestia" on November 27.

Nikolay Vavilov, a specialist of the strategic research department of TR company, reminded that on the eve of the Mosbirji index from the highs of May of this year yesterday updated the local minimum, falling below 2.5 thousand points.

"As for the forecast of the MosBirch index for the near future, taking into account yesterday's increase in the U.S. dollar rate in the OTC market to 107 rubles and almost guaranteed increase in the key rate to 23-25% per annum at the next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank on December 20, it by the end of this year may approach the values of October 2022 and show a mark at the level of 2 thousand points," he said.

In addition, Ruslan Pichugin, an independent private equity expert, explained that the reasons for the fall of the Russian stock market were the growth of geopolitical fears of expanding conflict in Ukraine, the risk of a new trade war between the United States and China and the introduction of new sanctions, the decline in the ruble, the expectation of another increase in the key rate by the Bank of Russia, high inflation, increased tax pressure on business from 2025.

"The nearest technical support for the MosBirch index is located in the area of 2.4 thousand points, and if it is broken, the target of the fall will shift to the area of 2.3 thousand points. Currently, the index correction rebound to 2.48 thousand points is taking place. By the end of this year, we expect the index value above 2.3 thousand points," he added.

Earlier, November 22, financial analyst, trader Artem Zvyozdin assessed the impact of the results of the U.S. elections on stock markets. According to him, as a result of the election of Donald Trump as President of the United States, the Mosbirji index rose and managed to return to the important intermediate level of 2.75 thousand points. But later declined, and on November 22 was at 2,580 points.