Expert forecasts growth of Russian banks' profits by 2024 results

The net profit of Russian banks may exceed 4 trillion rubles by the end of 2024. This assumption was shared with "Izvestia" on November 27 by Valery Piven, head of the group of ratings of financial institutions of ACRA.

"In general, at the end of 10 months, the net profit of the industry amounted to 3.3 trillion rubles. ACRA expects this figure to exceed Br4 trillion by the end of the year," he said.

According to the data of the Central Bank of Russia, the net profit of the Russian banking sector in October increased by 4% compared to September, up to 348 billion rubles. It is noted that the result was largely supported by large one-time income of individual banks: without them the profit would have been approximately Br260 billion, which is almost a quarter lower than in September. Taking into account the revaluation of securities (-242 billion rubles) and sub-boards (-29 billion rubles), reflected directly in the capital, the total financial result of the sector amounted to only 77 billion rubles, the regulator's document specifies.

"The financial results of October were largely formed due to one-off factors - income from the revaluation of securities. Income from the restoration of reserves also had an impact. Characteristically, the Bank of Russia notes a significant amount of losses, which banks reflect in the capital due to the peculiarities of accounting for certain financial instruments. Excluding these losses, the sector's result is less than 80 billion rubles. If, at the same time, we subtract from it the income, which the Central Bank classifies as one-off, the financial result will be close to zero," Piven added.

In 2023, Russian banks received a record 3.3 trillion rubles of net profit. The sector's average profit for 2022-2023 amounted to 1.7 trillion rubles, 27% lower than in 2021. Also, the total income for 2023 was lower by Br0.2 trillion due to the negative revaluation of debt securities through the capital, bypassing the profit, the Central Bank explained.