Orientalist calls possible violation of ceasefire in Lebanon

The Lebanese armed group Hezbollah may violate the ceasefire agreement between the Lebanese government and Israel. Stanislav Tarasov, an expert on the problems of the Middle East and the Caucasus, shared this opinion with Izvestia on November 27.

"The Lebanese government is tasked under this agreement to negotiate with Hezbollah. Hezbollah can violate the agreement if the government fails to reach an agreement. Russia's influence is also quite possible, it is a participant in the settlement process, as well as Iran," he said.

Thus, according to the interlocutor of the publication, the news about the ceasefire should be approached with cautious optimism, as the situation remains unstable. At the same time, the Orientalist emphasized, it is not excluded that these agreements may lead to an agreement on de-escalation in the Gaza Strip.

"The draft ceasefire agreement in Lebanon was being prepared by several parties, Russian representatives among them. The outgoing administration of U.S. President Joe Biden has gotten involved because it hopes to leave some peaceful mark on history. <...> From Israel's point of view, it agreed because it has conflicts on several fronts. Now he has an opportunity to eliminate one of the fronts," Tarasov explained.

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The beginning of the indefinite ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel was announced the day before by American President Biden. He said that within 60 days from November 27 Israel will gradually withdraw its troops from the neighboring country. After that, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a telephone conversation thanked Biden for his help in concluding a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon.

The escalation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah came after the events of September 17 and 18, when thousands of people, including employees of the movement, were injured when pagers and other communication devices exploded in Lebanon. The country blamed Tel Aviv for what happened. Since then, Israel has continued to eliminate the leadership of the Shiite movement and strike Lebanese territory.

The situation in the Middle East escalated on the morning of October 7, 2023, when the Palestinian radical movement Hamas subjected the territory of Israel to a massive rocket attack from the Gaza Strip. On the same day, Israel began retaliatory strikes.