Friendly advice: Putin may discuss escalation with the West with CSTO allies
Vladimir Putin will be in Astana on November 27 and 28, where he will hold talks with Kazakh President Kasym-Jomart Tokayev and participate in the CSTO summit. The importance of the visit is evidenced by the fact that the delegation will include almost all Russian government ministers. The Kremlin emphasizes that the parties are ready to sign a package of 20 documents on all major areas of bilateral cooperation. The CSTO secretariat told Izvestia that the organization's summit is expected to discuss, in particular, the escalation of Russia's relations with the West. Experts also admit that the issue of long-range strikes by Western weapons against Russia will be on the agenda of the meeting. On the significance of Vladimir Putin's state visit to Kazakhstan - in the material "Izvestia".
Vladimir Putin's visit to Kazakhstan
On November 27, Russian President Vladimir Putin will arrive in Kazakhstan on a two-day state visit. Despite frequent contacts between the heads of the two countries, the last time the Russian leader made a trip of this level to the Republic in October 2015.
The Kremlin press service announced that during the state visit, negotiations with Kazakh President Kasym-Jomart Tokayev will be held, and a joint statement of the heads of state and a number of intergovernmental, interdepartmental and commercial documents will be signed. In addition, the presidents will take part in the plenary session of the XX Forum of Interregional Cooperation, which takes place on November 26-27 in Ufa.
- It is planned that following the talks, the presidents will sign a joint statement on deepening strategic partnership in the new global order. This is the main document. This document touches upon the most urgent topics of our political dialog, trade and economic cooperation and cultural and humanitarian ties," Yury Ushakov, aide to the Russian president, specified.
The Russian delegation will include all key ministers. According to Yuri Ushakov, this fact shows that a variety of issues on the bilateral agenda will be discussed during the talks.
- It is planned to hold a thorough exchange of views on further steps for the development of bilateral relations," he said.
Yuri Ushakov specified that a package of 20 documents is ready for signing, covering literally all the most important areas of bilateral cooperation - from energy and transportation to health care and justice. Among other things, the agreement on supplies of Russian oil and petroleum products to Kazakhstan will be extended. It is not excluded that within the framework of the state visit the possibility of transportation of Kazakh oil through the territory of Russia to Germany will be discussed.
Energy is an important component of bilateral cooperation. On November 25, Kazakhstan's Energy Minister Almasadam Satkaliyev confirmed the country's interest in supplying Russian gas to China through its territory on the condition of receiving up to 10 billion cubic meters of gas at an agreed price for its market. At the same time, November 15, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that Russia and China are considering a new route of gas supplies through Kazakhstan with a capacity of 35 billion cubic meters per year.
Andrei Grozin, a senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, did not rule out that this topic will be touched upon at the meeting of the two presidents.
- Here we should also take into account Kazakhstan's own interests regarding not only transit, but also gasification of the northern and northeastern regions of the republic. Of course, this is a private issue, and I don't think the issue of gasification will be discussed during the visit, but such private issues make up the agenda of the visit," he said.
Kazakhstan signed an agreement with Gazprom to process and sell Karachaganak gas, with a term of 2025-2026, recalled Daria Saprynskaia, a researcher at Lomonosov Moscow State University's ISAA.
- The construction of the nuclear power plant and the past referendum in Kazakhstan, which supported this project, are also drivers of our possible cooperation in this area," she said.
In closed formats, most likely, issues of cooperation in the agricultural and industrial spheres - access of goods to markets, compliance with the EAEU agreement - will also be discussed, Kazakh parliamentary Majilis deputy Nikita Shatalov suggested in a conversation with Izvestia. Russia is a key supplier of grain (wheat and barley), poultry meat and other goods that play a crucial role in ensuring Kazakhstan's food security, Daria Saprynska specified.
- Russia is a key trade and investment partner for us," Nikita Shatalov added. - Our trade turnover is growing year by year in volume, with settlements now made mainly in national currencies. Direct investments from Russia to Kazakhstan amounted to $22 billion, the number of joint ventures in various sectors of the economy is actively growing - as far as I know, we are talking about 75 projects worth more than $20 billion. The most pressing issues of our strategic partnership are in the plane of logistics. Specifically, we are talking about the North-South corridor, gas transit to Uzbekistan and transportation of blue fuel to China through the north and northeast of Kazakhstan, as well as joint projects in the oil sector, where new fields are being prepared for launch.
Indeed, the numbers speak for themselves. Russia ranks second after China in terms of the volume of trade in the republic's foreign trade. In 2023, mutual trade between the two countries grew to a record $28.4 billion, and for the first nine months of this year this figure amounted to $20.6 billion. It is worth noting the high level of interregional ties. Thus, 76 out of 89 Russian regions cooperate with all regions of Kazakhstan. Finally, about 60 thousand students from Kazakhstan study in higher education institutions of the Russian Federation. Seven Russian universities are already represented in the republic, and soon it is planned to open a branch of MGIMO in Astana.
Nikita Shatalov believes that the humanitarian track will definitely be present at the negotiations between the Russian and Kazakh sides.
- Kazakhstan is actively using the possibility of opening Russian universities to support our technical education. A forum of our historians will be held. Perhaps documents on other joint projects will be signed, especially on the eve of the 80th anniversary of the Great Victory," he added.
Ukrainian conflict on the agenda of the CSTO summit
On November 28, Vladimir Putin will take part in the summit of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, which will also be held in Astana. According to Natalia Kharitonova, spokeswoman for the CSTO secretariat, during a joint meeting of the Council of Foreign Ministers, the Council of Defense Ministers, the Committee of Secretaries of Security Councils, and then a session of the CSTO Collective Security Council, the situation in the organization's area of responsibility and in a number of regions adjacent to it will be "thoroughly discussed".
- Given the circumstances, I expect the sides to touch upon the latest developments in the Eastern European region of collective security, namely the topic of Russia's escalating relations with the West. Other key issues include the approval by the heads of state of the Collective Security Treaty Organization's Targeted Interstate Program on Strengthening the Tajik-Afghan Border and the joint celebration of the 80th anniversary of the Victory in the Great Patriotic War," Natalia Kharitonova told Izvestia.
According to Yuri Ushakov, the leaders will discuss, among other things, tasks "to form a new architecture of equal indivisible security in Eurasia." In addition to Vladimir Putin and Kasym-Jomart Tokayev, the summit will be attended by President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, the leader of Kyrgyzstan Sadyr Zhaparov and the head of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon, as well as the Secretary General of the organization Imangali Tasmagambetov.
It is noteworthy that Armenia will not take part in the summit, however, according to Yuri Ushakov, Yerevan informed in advance that it has nothing against the adoption of the relevant agreed documents at the summit.
- We do not question the right of Armenian partners to determine their own course," the Russian leader's aide said. - De jure Yerevan remains a full member of the CSTO and thus retains all relevant rights and obligations.
A total of 14 documents have been prepared for signing, some of which are aimed at strengthening allied relations and increasing the combat effectiveness of the collective rapid reaction forces of the Central Asian region. The leaders of the CSTO member countries will adopt in Astana a final declaration, in which they will fix common approaches to key issues on the international and regional agenda, as well as a statement in honor of the 80th anniversary of the Victory in the Great Patriotic War. In addition, a plan of events to celebrate the anniversary will be agreed upon.
The summit participants cannot but touch upon the issue of long-range Western weapons strikes on Russian territory, said Stanislav Pritchin, a senior researcher at the Center for Post-Soviet Studies at the IMEMO RAS.
- Most likely, there will be a discussion of steps to be taken in case escalation escalates and how the allies should act in these conditions," he said.
Recall that on November 21, after announcing the testing of the Oreshnik missile in response to Western long-range missile strikes on Russian territory, Vladimir Putin stressed that in case of escalation of aggressive actions on the part of NATO countries, Russia would respond "also decisively and mirror-like."
According to Andrei Grozin, a senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, there is a collective discipline within the CSTO, which involves working out some unified position. "It is quite possible that it will be voiced. The format of the session does not suggest that a political position will be worked out, but it is quite possible that condemnation of a new round of escalation will be voiced, but without detail," the expert summarized.
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