Political analyst points to limitations for Ukraine in "German" scenario of NATO admission

NATO will most likely not be able to admit Ukraine to its membership according to the "German" scenario, as there are a number of various restrictions for this purpose. Political scientist and expert in international relations Enes Karakhanov pointed this out in a conversation with Izvestiya on 25 November.

The day before, former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said that NATO should treat Ukraine like West Germany, which joined the alliance despite sharp criticism from the USSR. He said such a move would be a precondition for ending the conflict and a "powerful signal" to Russia.

"First of all, the geopolitical situation now is fundamentally different from that of the Cold War. In the case of the FRG, we were talking about a country where Western allies' troops were already stationed and which was geographically integrated into the Western European space. It is important to note that even in that situation, the process of integrating Germany into NATO took considerable time and was accompanied by complex diplomatic maneuvers," Karakhanov commented.

First, he added, the current military conflict poses serious legal and practical obstacles. According to NATO's internal documents, countries with unresolved territorial disputes or in a state of military conflict cannot be admitted to the alliance. Kiev's partial accession to the organization would create an unprecedented situation that would lead to even greater destabilization - in such a case, it is unclear how the bloc's members should react to armed actions in an allied country.

"Second, there is no complete unity among NATO members on the issue of accepting Ukraine. Some countries fear that this could lead to an uncontrolled escalation of the conflict. The admission of a new member requires a unanimous decision of all the countries of the alliance. <...> Poroshenko's statement that an invitation to NATO could be a prerequisite for the cessation of hostilities seems overly optimistic. History shows that such decisions are usually a result, not a prerequisite for conflict resolution," the interlocutor added.

As for the impact of Ukraine's possible NATO membership on the prospects of peaceful settlement, the political analyst believes that the situation is ambiguous. On the one hand, NATO membership could provide Ukraine with serious security guarantees. However, on the other hand, the accession process itself in the current conditions may significantly complicate the search for diplomatic solutions and make it difficult to reach compromises.

Before that, on November 14, the former head of the NATO Military Committee, Harald Kuyat, said that Ukraine would not be admitted to NATO because it did not meet the alliance's requirements and would not be able to strengthen it. He pointed out that the reason for this was that Kiev did not meet the requirements of Article 10 of the bloc's treaty.

On the same day, the International Republican Institute in Ukraine published the results of a poll according to which support for the country's accession to NATO and the European Union (EU) among citizens has fallen by 7% in a year and a half. If in February 2023, 82% of respondents supported the course of European integration, in September 2024 - 75%.

Ukraine applied to join NATO on an accelerated basis on September 30, 2022. Then Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, whose term of office expired on May 20, 2024, said that the country was already in the alliance and met its standards.