Degrees and actions: what participants of SOR-29 in Azerbaijan argued about for a whole day

The SOR-29 summit in Azerbaijan ended a day later than planned. The reason was disagreement over the amount to help poor countries fight climate change, which is now three times higher than the previous one. Nevertheless, the parties managed to agree even on the sixth article in the Paris Climate Agreement - this issue has been on the agenda for years. Somewhat overshadowing the expectations of the summit participants is the victory of Donald Trump in the US elections, because it was under his presidency that the states withdrew from the agreement. Is it worth waiting for a similar scenario during Trump's second term and what else the participants of the summit in Baku agreed on - in the material of "Izvestia".

What are the results of SOR-29

The UN climate conference COP-29 has ended in Baku. Azerbaijan became the first country in the post-Soviet space to host the event. Initially it was planned that the discussions would be held from November 11 to 22, but the summit had to be prolonged for more than a day due to disagreements of the participants.

The point is that the world's leading players on the climate agenda - the United States, China, the European Union, Saudi Arabia, Brazil and others - faced the question of which states and how much they should allocate to climate finance. Some 200 countries have endorsed a deal to allocate a minimum of $300 billion a year to poor nations to fight climate change (previously the amount was $100 billion a year).

Photo: TASS/Zuma/Sergei Grits

At the same time, many developing countries requested more than $1 trillion in aid, considering the agreement an insult. For example, India called the amount "negligible. Sierra Leone was also disappointed with the outcome of the conference. According to its representatives, the amount of financial aid "shows the lack of goodwill on the part of developed countries". Bolivia, Nigeria and others were also dissatisfied.

UN Secretary General António Guterres expressed disappointment with the lack of ambition of the participating countries, noting that the new goal could be a starting point for further efforts, provided that "promises quickly turn into real means."

Nevertheless, despite the tripled amount, realizing the target may not be easy, Higher School of Economics analyst Yelizaveta Smolovik told Izvestia.

- The previous target of $100 billion a year set for 2020 was reached only in 2022, under more favorable economic conditions. In addition, geopolitical tensions, including a possible US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, increase uncertainty in achieving climate goals," says the expert.

Photo: Izvestia/Mitriy Korotayev

Also, one of the key outcomes of the summit is the conclusion of multi-year negotiations on the sixth article of the Paris Agreement, which will allow countries to cooperate in the implementation of climate commitments, including reducing the cost of plans. It is expected that such measures could reduce costs by up to $250 billion annually.

Also in 2025, countries will have to update their 2035 contributions to the Paris Agreement. According to the latest estimates of the UN Environment Program, the existing commitments are not up to the task of keeping global warming within 1.5°C (relative to pre-industrial levels), which creates the risk of a temperature rise of 2.6-3.1°C by the end of the century.

The Russian delegation attending the conference was one of the largest, emphasizing the seriousness with which Moscow approaches environmental issues. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, who headed the delegation, arrived in Baku on November 13. During his speech, the head of the Cabinet of Ministers spoke about the focus on developing in-house technologies and increasing production capacity to decarbonize industries. Mishustin urged the conference participants to join efforts in the fight against climate change.

Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin speaking at the UN climate conference COP-29

Photo: TASS/EPA/IGOR KOVALENKO

Rosatom also took part in the event. Representatives of the state corporation emphasized the importance of nuclear power for the climate agenda, as well as the fact that over the past three years there has been a significant increase in public interest in this area in the context of the environment.

Disagreements on the environmental agenda

Climate change has long been actively discussed on international platforms. The main issue is the achievement of carbon neutrality, i.e. the amount of greenhouse gases emitted should not exceed the amount that is absorbed by nature, in particular through forests and oceans.

The issue of carbon neutrality is extremely important, because it is because of greenhouse emissions that global warming occurs, which provokes natural disasters. Against this background, disagreements have already accumulated. The US, EU, UK, Japan, South Korea and more than 110 other participants have already pledged to become carbon neutral by 2050. However, Russia, China and Kazakhstan intend to achieve this result only by 2060. About these plans, by the way, reminded and Mikhail Mishustin in Baku.

By the way, it is worth noting that it was the Russian delegation at SOR-29 in Baku that became the first carbon-neutral. Sibur said it would offset the carbon footprint of the delegation's participation in the summit.

Photo: TASS/EPA/IGOR KOVALENKO

In addition, many developing countries believe that they are not yet on the same industrialization path to switch to green energy as developed countries, even despite financial assistance.

Nevertheless, addressing environmental issues is, in one way or another, linked to geopolitical tensions. Some 80 heads of state and government from around the world gathered in Baku. Nevertheless, in 2024 the total number of participants was halved from almost 83,000 to 40,000. The conference was ignored by French leader Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and South African leader Cyril Ramaphosa.

In addition, Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election casts a shadow over the ongoing negotiations of the U.S. delegation at SOR-29 and the future participation of the states in any climate finance deal in the perspective of four to five years, Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the Center for Mediterranean Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, told Izvestia.

Trump was convinced that the Paris Agreement was redistributing American wealth in favor of other countries. However, when Joe Biden came to power, Washington officially returned to the agreement. It is possible that Trump's return to the Oval House will mark the US' re-exit from the Paris Agreement.

- Talks about this are already underway, both at the level of the media and expert circles, and within the Trump team. He may be guided by the logic that US activity on the climate agenda will weaken national strategic power and benefit geopolitical adversaries, i.e. Russia, Iran, Venezuela and China, where the first three own the largest oil reserves on the planet. According to Trump, oil is "liquid gold" and should work to improve the well-being of Americans. Therefore, among other things, the world should expect U.S. oil production to increase above the current record level," Meloyan added.

Photo: TASS/EPA/ETIENNE LAURENT

Moreover, in the past, the impetus for developing countries to reduce emissions was usually given by Western players, particularly the US and the EU. Now we cannot rule out the opposite scenario - for example, China is increasingly trying on the role of the main participant in the process of solving the global warming problem.