Who and how is planning "peace" in Ukraine. Parsing

The world continues to discuss various plans to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. The most famous of them is the initiative of Brazil and China, which was supported by the majority of countries. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has spoken about his proposals, without voicing them specifically. What options exist and how Russia feels about them - in the material of "Izvestia".

The peace plan of China and Brazil

- The most frequently mentioned peace plan is the "Consensus of China and Brazil on the political settlement of the Ukrainian crisis". It was announced in May 2024 following a meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and the chief advisor to Brazilian President Celso Amorim. The document consists of six points.

- China and Brazil called for refraining from expanding the battlefield, escalating hostilities and committing provocations. The two countries also supported the convening of a peace conference that would be recognized by Russia and Ukraine and that would have an honest discussion on a peace settlement.

- The China-Brazil plan calls for resolving the humanitarian crisis, renouncing the use of weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear, chemical and biological weapons, and attacks on nuclear facilities. The plan concludes by calling on all countries not to lock themselves into political and economic groupings, but to strengthen cooperation.

- This plan received the greatest approval from Moscow compared to other initiatives. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that the intention of China and Brazil to establish peace should be welcomed, and Western countries should take the document into account. He called the strength of the plan the fact that the proposed items are based on the UN Charter.

African Union Peace Plan

- In June 2023, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa presented his 10-point peace plan on behalf of African countries. It called for de-escalation, security guarantees for all parties, grain and fertilizer supplies, exchange of prisoners of war, immediate commencement of negotiations, and respect for the UN Charter, among other things. Ramaphosa also proposed humanitarian support for victims and "post-war reconstruction."

Indonesia's peace plan

- At the same time, Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto proposed his own plan. The initiative calls for a ceasefire, the creation of a 15-kilometer demilitarized zone, the deployment of UN peacekeepers on the battle line and referendums also organized by the UN.

Trump's peace plan

- US President-elect Donald Trump has repeatedly stated that he intends to stop the Russian-Ukrainian conflict as soon as possible. His promise to do so "in 24 hours" became famous . Many leaks in the Western media suggest that he allegedly intended to threaten Ukraine with a complete cessation of aid, and Russia, on the contrary, with increased supplies to Kiev. In this way, the next head of the White House allegedly intends to bring the parties to the negotiating table.

- Trump's plan has not been officially presented, but it is regularly talked about by the media, giving through leaks an idea of some contours of a possible initiative. Once in office, Trump is expected to propose freezing the conflict and creating a 1,300-kilometer buffer zone with security provided by European troops. Trump's plan is also likely to involve denying Ukraine accession to NATO, in return Kiev will continue to receive US weapons.

Rumors about Turkey and FRG peace plans

- During the recent G20 summit in November, the media speculated that Turkey would present its peace plan. It allegedly includes the creation of a demilitarized zone in Donbass with the deployment of international troops there, postponing the issue of Ukraine's NATO membership for 10 years, and providing military supplies as a sign of compensation. However, the Turkish presidential administration denied the existence of such a plan.

- In September 2024, the Italian media reported that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was also preparing his own peace plan. It was claimed that the politician did not rule out the transfer of some Ukrainian territories to Russia. Scholz's initiative was characterized as "Minsk-3" with a reference to the Minsk agreements of 2014-2015. However, the FRG government denied the existence of such a plan.

- Some countries offered their services as mediators in the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. At different times, officials from Turkey, Kazakhstan, Colombia, UAE, Israel, Switzerland, China and India announced this. There was also information about Qatar's willingness to take on this role.

What the settlement in Ukraine is being proposed for

- China and Brazil, by drawing up and proposing their peace plan for Ukraine, want to contribute to a multipolar world without Western domination. In agreement with this, by the fall of 2024, more than 110 countries around the world have left positive comments on the document, reflecting the general expectations of the global community.

- In addition, China and Brazil are among the large developing countries that are interested in free international trade. It is of fundamental importance to them that military conflicts do not harm their economic activities, and therefore they are trying to strengthen their diplomatic influence.

- Separately, China expects that the end of the Ukrainian crisis will put an end to the sanctions system in international politics and abolish all restrictions that some countries practice against others as part of unfair competition. Beijing wants to rid itself of the risks posed by the sanctions policy of the West.

- For Russia, the China-Brazil plan is beneficial because it demonstrates the intention of the BRICS countries to promote a peaceful settlement and is an alternative to Western attempts to impose their vision of the end of the conflict. The existence of such a plan shows that Moscow does not reject the very need for a settlement, but expects its interests to be served.

- On Trump's side, the interest in ending the Ukrainian conflict lies in ending costly financial and military aid to Kiev and returning the distributed funds to the U.S. economy. This reason and in itself is a tool to force Ukraine to peace, as Washington is the main sponsor of enabling Kiev's ability to fight. In addition, Trump still has the opportunity to pressure European allies to also stop providing aid to Ukraine, which would speed up the resolution of the conflict.

Russia's position

- The conditions for the start of negotiations with Ukraine were announced in June 2024 by Russian President Vladimir Putin. He stated that two points were key: Ukraine's refusal to join NATO and the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the territories of the DNR, LNR, Kherson and Zaporizhzhya regions. He named the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, ensuring the rights of the Russian-speaking population, and lifting Western sanctions among other conditions for the final end of the conflict.

- Putin also emphasized that Russia is ready to negotiate on the basis of the agreements concluded in the spring of 2022 in Istanbul, when the last round of talks between the two countries took place, but taking into account "realities on the ground." The content of those agreements was not officially disclosed, but the media reported that they provided for Ukraine's non-aligned status, Kiev's refusal to produce and receive nuclear weapons, the deployment of foreign troops and the provision of their infrastructure, the prohibition of Nazism and aggressive nationalism, and the recognition of Russian sovereignty over the new territories.

- At the same time, Russian officials emphasize that Ukraine has a legal ban on negotiating with Russia, which makes any communication difficult. In September 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, whose powers expired on May 20, 2024, signed a decree that put into effect the National Security and Defense Council's decision that negotiations with Vladimir Putin were impossible.

- Separately, Russia emphasizes that freezing the conflict is also not acceptable. According to the Kremlin's position, the goals of the special operation to protect Donbas must be achieved, as a simple ceasefire does not solve the problem of the existence of an unfriendly militarized state near Russia's border.

- The stumbling block, which is not taken into account in any of the proposed peace plans, remains the attempt by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) to invade the Kursk region. According to the secretary of the Russian Security Council, Sergey Shoygu, negotiations with Ukraine are impossible until the AFU is knocked out of Russian territory.

While preparing the material Izvestia talked to:

• Yevgeny Minchenko, director of the International Institute for Political Expertise;
• Ivan Skorikov, head of the Ukraine Department at the Institute of CIS Countries;
• Bogdan Bezpalko, a member of the Russian Presidential Council on Interethnic Relations and deputy director of the Center for Ukrainian and Belarusian Studies at Lomonosov Moscow State University.