Unfriendly neutrality: Israel considers supplying arms to Ukraine
The Israeli Foreign Ministry has offered to hand over to Kiev Russian-made weapons allegedly seized by the IDF from Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. The announcement pleased the Ukrainian ambassador to Israel, Yevhen Korniychuk. This will mean that Tel Aviv, previously limited to humanitarian aid, will begin to provide combat support to Ukraine. Details - in the material "Izvestia".
Change of position
Deputy Foreign Minister of Israel Sharen Haskel proposed to transfer to Ukraine Russian weapons allegedly seized by the Israeli military from units of the Lebanese Shiite movement Hezbollah and the Palestinian movement Hamas.
Ukrainian Ambassador to Israel Yevhen Korniychuk commented on these reports.
"I welcome this proposal and hope that the state of Israel will approve it," the diplomat said.
He accused Moscow of "supporting and encouraging the actions of Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas," emphasizing that "Ukraine and Israel are fighting the same enemies."
Since February 2022, the Israeli government has refused to supply arms to Ukraine. "And despite Haskel's offer, there is no sign that policy will change," The Times of Israel wrote on the matter.
Nevertheless, the publication reports that Israeli lawmakers are already considering a bill authorizing such supplies. So far, the draft document is in the Knesset for preliminary discussion.
Shortly before that, the Israel Defense Forces published photos and video showing the seized weapons. According to the Israeli publication, it allegedly includes improved anti-tank guided missiles "Kornet", some of them were produced in 2020.
In addition, a publication by the international Israeli news agency Tazpit Press Service (TPS) referred to Strela portable anti-aircraft missiles, RPG-29 Vampire and RPG-27 Tavolga rocket-propelled grenade launchers, Metis-M anti-tank missile systems and MRO-A anti-personnel rocket-propelled flamethrowers. Stocks of Kalashnikov assault rifles were also confiscated, the article noted.
"Some of the weapons had markings indicating that they were first transferred to Syria and then to Lebanon," the agency said.
In August this year, the Israeli ambassador to Ukraine, Michael Brodsky, said that the Ukrainian authorities had made a mistake in communicating with the Israeli leadership. In particular, they talked to Tel Aviv through the media and ultimatums. However, according to him, this approach does not work in relations with Israel.
The head of the diplomatic mission noted that initially many Israelis supported Kiev and collected donations for Ukrainians, but then the activity came to naught, as the Ukrainian authorities considered humanitarian aid insufficient and sometimes even unnecessary. Instead, Kiev insisted that Tel Aviv provide Ukraine with military and technical assistance. Israel, however, refused to do so.
Insufficient volume
Vasily Ostanin-Golovnya, a researcher at the Middle and Post-Soviet East Department of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted in a conversation with Izvestia that the possibility of Israel supplying lethal weapons to Kiev raises many doubts.
- One can say anything for the sake of political points, especially given the strategic alliance between the United States and Israel, especially against the backdrop of the upcoming reshuffle in the White House with the arrival of Trump. Nevertheless, a similar situation has arisen in the past year. From leaks of a number of Pentagon and CIA documents, information emerged that Israel, like Turkey, was supplying lethal weapons to Ukraine through third countries," the political analyst said.
According to him, then Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu denied these statements, directly referring to the closed agreements between Israel and Russia on Syria.
- First of all, these agreements concern airspace and airstrikes, because Russian and IDF aircraft operate in close proximity to each other. And, to all appearances, these agreements between Russia and Israel remain in place," the expert believes.
He believes that as long as the agreements are in force, it is unlikely that Israel will change its tactics of behavior in relations with Ukraine, limiting itself only to the delivery of humanitarian supplies.
- Although a number of these humanitarian cargoes, as military experts have noted, often have a dual purpose. As for the Russian-made arms of Hezbollah, it is important to note that Russia has not and does not directly supply arms to Iran's main proxy project," the specialist emphasized.
The Orientalist suggested that Tehran provides some of the weapons - from the arsenal it bought from Russia.
- But even according to information from open sources, it can be concluded that Hezbollah has Russian-made weapons of outdated models and many of these weapons were produced in the late years of the Soviet Union. In addition, a number of weapons are produced in some countries of the Middle East, and these are also mostly obsolete systems that Hezbollah has in its arsenal," the analyst said.
According to Ostanin-Golovny, even if Israel goes to supply Kiev with Hezbollah weapons captured by the Israeli military, one should take into account that the volumes are very scarce. Therefore, the supply of even lethal samples by Israel will be more of an image character, as their quantity will be obviously insufficient, the political analyst summarized.
Serious consequences for Israel
Andrei Ontikov, an orientalist, publicist, and author of the Telegram channel "Eastern Gate", emphasized in a conversation with Izvestia that "Israel is playing with fire in this way".
- Israel allows itself in relations with Russia much more than other countries for a number of reasons. In 2018, Israeli aircraft over the Eastern Mediterranean in a raid on Syria shot down a Russian Il-20 jet, killing 15 servicemen. Then the Israeli planes, according to the Defense Ministry's statement, were covered by a Russian vessel, as a result of which the Syrian air defense forces shot down our plane," the political analyst recalled.
He noted that Tel Aviv did not bear any responsibility for this. Russia has taken steps: supplying Syria with S-300 systems and some other measures. However, by and large, this did not change anything: Israel has been carrying out its raids on Syria and continues to do so to this day, the expert explained.
S-300 air defense missile system
In Ontikov's opinion, Israeli raids on Syria are a serious blow to Russia's reputation in the Middle East.
- The Arab press presents it all very simply: as if Russia at best turns a blind eye to these raids, and at worst allows Israel to carry them out, and this is explained by the fact that there is direct contact between the Russian and Israeli militaries. All this is presented in the media as if Russia knows about Israel's intentions and does not inform anyone," the analyst said.
The Orientalist added that Russia is being patient for certain reasons. Moscow has done a lot to secure Israeli territory and prevent any escalation by Syria in the occupied Golan Heights.
The expert believes that when there are statements from high-ranking Israeli officials about the possibility of transferring weapons to Ukraine, this could lead to any serious reaction from Moscow.
- For example, Hezbollah may, by a strange coincidence, have considerably more weapons than it has now. Either Syria will suddenly shoot down Israeli airplanes, or resist Israeli raids more successfully, not to mention the Houthis in Yemen," the specialist noted.
In his opinion, Russia has a wide enough set of tools to influence the Israelis.
- What Israel allows itself is due to Moscow's very great patience and the fact that the Russian Federation has a special relationship with Israel. If the Middle Eastern country takes any more frankly boorish steps, I am not sure that Russia will tolerate further, the consequences for Israel could be serious, if it achieves this," Ontikov summarized.
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