Experts predicted that the CFA market would increase to RUB 5 trillion by 2028

The market of digital financial assets (DFA) in three years in an optimistic scenario may grow 15 times and reach 5 trillion rubles, according to Arthur Consulting. "Izvestia" got acquainted with the data of the company's analysts on November 19.

CFAs are a type of assets that are created and traded using blockchain. They are issued by operators of information systems (OIS), which are included in the register of the Bank of Russia. There are 11 such platforms in total, which is significantly less than the number of financial platforms and classic exchanges, said Seville Baer, project director at Arthur Consulting.

"This indicates the early stage of market development and points to the lack of excitement among new players due to high costs and uncertain payback," she explained.

The company specified that from January to October 2024, 316 issues of CFAs were made, and their total volume amounted to more than 330 billion rubles. In the total amount of issues, monetary claims are leading (79%), rights on equity securities (18%) and state CFAs (3%) are also represented.

According to experts surveyed by Arthur Consulting, digital financial assets are still an experimental part of the portfolio for banks - they are still cautious investors in CFA, but interest in the use of these instruments is growing. The average size of investments by retail investors is small, they most often invest amounts of up to several hundred thousand rubles. According to experts, legislative restrictions are the main barrier that makes CFAs available to a limited number of retail investors. They see the solution to this situation in lowering investment thresholds, but this requires the development of infrastructure and regulatory mechanisms.

According to analysts, the CFA market has several development scenarios. In the first scenario, growth is possible due to the efforts of private companies and technological innovations. In this case, the possibility of market expansion is provided by companies developing platforms for issuing and circulating CFA. They will improve their systems, increasing efficiency and functionality. But without significant changes in the legislative framework, the growth will be limited to Br1 trillion by 2028, experts believe.

In the second option, the market will be able to develop faster due to improved legislative and tax regulation, as well as technological and product development. Analysts believe that support from the government is also needed: introduction of changes to laws simplifying the process of issuing and circulation of CFAs, and active investment in awareness-raising programs and integration of CFA topics into educational programs. As the company explained, this would remove most barriers and reduce risks for investors. In this case, growth of up to Br3 trillion by 2028 is possible, the company believes.

According to the experts' forecast, in the scenario of explosive growth, the CFA market in Russia will develop most rapidly due to the synergistic effect of all key factors: support from the government, active investment in technology and infrastructure development. This will lead to increased investor interest, the creation of new business models and, ultimately, the integration of CFAs into everyday financial practices. According to analysts' estimates, based on open sources and interviews, the market is expected to grow to Br5 trillion by 2028.

Earlier, on November 13, Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration Maxim Oreshkin said that the CFA and the digital ruble "should, with the help of new technological solutions of the most modern ones, open up opportunities for more efficient economicmanagement." He also expressed the opinion that the global financial system based on international banks is outdated.