Shumel Tamysh: what will change in Abkhazia after the resignation of the president
The authorities of Abkhazia and the opposition have found a way out of the political crisis. According to the signed agreement, President Aslan Bzhania and Prime Minister Alexander Ankvab resign. In turn, their opponents leave the government buildings and early presidential elections will be scheduled in the republic. Experts say that any new authorities will have to face a large burden of problems. "Izvestia" looked into the situation.
President Bzhania was sent to resign
The political crisis in Abkhazia erupted in mid-November, the reason was primarily the Investment Agreement between Moscow and Sukhum. The opposition believed that the document questioned the sovereignty of the republic and on November 15th stormed the government quarter. As a result, President Aslan Bzhania fled the capital and settled in his ancestral village of Tamysh in the Ochamchira district, while his opponents occupied the parliament building.
For several days, Bzhania and his opponents exchanged mutual accusations and options to resolve the crisis. Thus, the opposition demanded that not only the president himself, but also the entire current government should resign. The head of the republic generally agreed to leave his post, but wanted the acting vice-president Badra Gunba to become the interim head of the republic.
Opposition supporters saw down a broken fence near the Abkhazian parliament building in Sukhum
On the night of November 19, substantive negotiations between the parties took place in the building of the Ministry of Defense of Abkhazia. Vice-President Gunba, chairman of the state customs committee Otar Khetsia and public activist David Pilia represented the authorities at the meeting. The opposition was represented by chairman of the committee for protection of sovereignty Levan Mikaa, MP Kan Kvarchia and head of the organization "Abkhazian People's Movement" Adgur Ardzinba. Negotiations lasted for nine hours, in the early morning details of the agreement were revealed.
According to the agreements, President Aslan Bzhania and Prime Minister Alexander Ankvab will resign. Vice President Gunba will act as head of the republic, the government will be headed by opposition supporter Valery Bganba, who has already held this post in 2018-2020. All other ministers will retain their posts. In parallel, the opponents of the authorities must vacate the government quarter, early presidential elections will be scheduled in the republic.
Opposition protesters in front of the Abkhaz Presidential Administration in Sukhumi
Opposition supporters greeted the news of Bzhania's resignation with jubilation, some even danced a lezginka in honor of the occasion. Negotiator Adgur Ardzinba said during a speech in the square that the main result was "victory over autocracy" in Abkhazia. Some other activists, however, did not hide their disappointment, because other demands, it turns out, had to be abandoned. Then in the afternoon of November 19 opposition supporters left government buildings, and the parliament voted for the resignation of the president.
New elections will be held in three months
According to Abkhazian legislation, early elections must be held within three months after the resignation of the incumbent president. Accordingly, the vote is likely to take place at the end of February. Interestingly, this gives almost nothing to the opposition, because in April Aslan Bzhania's term of office was already expiring, so the elections would have been held in late winter or early spring in any case.
Bzhania himself said already during the current crisis that he was going to run for early elections. "Opposition supporters constantly refer to the opinion of the people, saying that they are supported by the citizens. The true measure in such a matter will be the elections. They will show who our multinational people would like to see as president. This is how I see the way out," he emphasized.
Opposition leader Adgur Ardzinba during a press conference at the Abkhazian parliament building in Sukhum
Numerous polls show that oppositionists Adgur Ardzinba and Oleg Bartsits are considered the most popular candidates for the highest office. Aslan Bzhania's rating is low, although there are arguments in his favor. First of all, he is an experienced politician, who has repeatedly emerged victorious from the most difficult situations. For example, on the eve of the 2020 elections he was poisoned, hospitalized, had a difficult recovery, but then he managed to push his opponent Raul Khajimba out of power and won the final victory.
Secondly, Bzhania continues to enjoy the support of the Russian side. Thus, during the current crisis Vladimir Putin invited the Abkhazian leader to celebrate Victory Day in Moscow. In addition, a number of major infrastructure projects with Russian participation are planned to be completed under the elections. The main one is the launch of the airport in Sukhumi, the opening ceremony is expected in late December. It is clear that the ribbon will now be cut by someone else, but information resources may well inform citizens about the role of Bzhania in the resumption of flights.
Meeting of the session of the People's Assembly-Parliament of the Republic of Abkhazia
At the same time, any next president of Abkhazia will have to solve a number of serious problems. One of them concerns relations with Russia: Moscow, obviously, is no longer going to help the republic unilaterally and is increasingly insistent in demanding reciprocal actions. For example, the very Investment Agreement, on which Bzhania got burned, is still on the agenda. Any leader in such conditions will try both to protect the sovereignty of the republic and not to spoil relations with Russia.
The second important point is the issue of stability of power. In Abkhazia for the third time in the last 10 years the president is changing through the street, and each time events look more and more turbulent. For example, during the current crisis the opposition had enough literally a few hundred supporters to drive out the incumbent leader. Experts are increasingly talking about the "Africanization" of the political process, the apathy of the security apparatus, and the "power of the street". It is obvious that such a situation does not help sustainable development.
What experts say
Alexander Vorobyev, a researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, calls the agreement a compromise.
- Both the government and the opposition got theirs, both sides managed to save face, and we are not talking about defeating one or the other forces. The main thing is that there was no bloodshed, we managed to come to an agreement as a result of dialog, and this is a positive moment. As for Russia, it was important for us not to allow excessive escalation. Moscow is sure that any Abkhazian authorities will be forced to work with Russia, so they are calm about the change of personalities, - he emphasizes.
Abkhazian political scientist Anton Krivenyuk is happy that the political crisis was avoided without shooting and violence.
- The current events have become the third episode in 10 years, when our president was driven away. In the previous two cases the heads of the republic were deprived of everything and went nowhere, now we see political dialog and compromise - this is also a positive moment. At the same time tough position of the Russian side on investments and other items on the agenda is not going anywhere, the only question is whether Moscow will wait for regrouping of the Abkhazian authorities or will not give Sukhumi even this pause, - he argues.
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