Prepare: EU links its military exercises to Russian actions
The military exercises of the EU Rapid Deployment Force, which will start on November 25, are connected, among other things, with Russia's actions, the European Commission explained to Izvestiya. Such units were conceived for use outside the EU. At the same time, experts ruled out that these forces could go to Ukraine. The reason is simple: the EU countries are unable to work out a unified strategy regarding support for Kiev. At the same time, we should not expect the EU to ease pressure on Russia in the coming months, given that Estonia's Kaja Kallas, who is known for her anti-Russian views, will become the head of European diplomacy on December 1. How Brussels continues to follow the path of escalation and what Moscow thinks about it - in the material of "Izvestia".
Military exercises in Germany
Large-scale military exercises of rapid deployment forces, which will be held from November 25 to December 10 in Germany with the participation of 15 EU countries and more than 1.7 thousand soldiers, are related to Russia's actions in Ukraine, the European Commission said.
-In light of the deteriorating security situation in and around Europe, exacerbated by Russia's violations of the UN Charter and international law, the EU is strengthening its capacity to be able to respond to crises that pose a direct threat to the community and its citizens. All decisions in this area, including the activation of rapid deployment force capabilities, are and will be taken unanimously by EU member states," EU foreign policy spokesman Peter Stano told Izvestia.
At the same time, the Kremlin has repeatedly emphasized that the causes of the conflict in Ukraine should be sought not in Moscow's actions, but in the West's policy. Thus, during his recent telephone conversation with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Russian President Vladimir Putin reminded that the current crisis was a direct result of NATO's longstanding aggressive policy aimed at creating an anti-Russian bridgehead on Ukrainian territory while ignoring Russia's security interests and violating the rights of Russian-speaking residents.
The official EU communiqué, which, however, does not mention Russia, explains that the purpose of the exercise is "to realize the full operational potential" of the European Union Rapid Deployment Capacity (EU Rapid Deployment Capacity), the formation of which was announced in the EU back in the spring of 2022. The document specifies that the force should be operational in 2025, which will allow at any time to deploy up to 5,000 soldiers capable of "responding to any crisis outside the borders of the EU".
Discussions on the creation of a special armed force with similar functions were held back in the era of the creation of the European Union, recalled Vadim Koroshchupov, a military expert and junior researcher at the IMEMO of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
- Among the threats to which these forces should respond, the European strategies include Russia. Attention is also paid to the situation in the Asia-Pacific region. The latter formulation clearly shows American influence, taking into account the U.S. strategy to contain China. It also refers to the resolution of emerging conflicts outside Europe, such as in the Sahel countries in Africa. These forces are being created to address exclusively European problems, not NATO-level crises. The European leadership began to set such priorities after the problems that were connected with the inability of Europe to resolve the Yugoslav conflict without the help of the United States," he explained.
The expert emphasized that we are talking about military formations of modular type, i.e. capable of being supplemented depending on the tasks they face.
However, in the near future, it is unlikely that the rapid deployment forces could be used for deployment in Ukraine, Vadym Koroshchupov said.
- The Ukrainian factor is implied in the formation of these forces, but it is more of a reserve for the future than something that can be used now. That is why we are talking about the number of 5,000 people. This is a pilot project. It is a testing ground for the mechanism of removing administrative and political barriers. Here they will work out to what extent the EU will be able to quickly agree and quickly make a decision," he added.
Split in the camp of Kiev's allies
The EU Rapid Deployment Force is being created on a supranational basis, while the main problem is the inability of the community's countries to develop a unified strategy regarding the conflict in Ukraine. It is obvious that countries such as Hungary and Slovakia, which favor a peaceful resolution of the conflict, will refuse to send their forces to Ukraine if Brussels even decides to take such a step.
The issue of strikes deep into Russia also shows the divisions within the EU. While, for example, the Baltic states are calling for Kiev to be given such authorization, France has yet to give Zelensky the green light to use SCALP missiles to strike Russian territory. France's le Figaro, which wrote on November 17 about the authorization allegedly obtained by Kiev, eventually retracted its words.
SCALP cruise missile
In addition, Italy also denied Kiev a similar authorization, local media reported. Olaf Scholz confirmed at the G20 summit in Brazil that Berlin under his leadership has no intention to transfer Taurus missiles to Kiev and authorize their use for strikes deep into Russian territory.
EU foreign ministers at a summit in Brussels on Nov. 18 and 19 also did not make a common decision to lift restrictions on the use of Western weapons on Russian territory. However, Borrel said that the U.S. administration had allegedly given such authorization, although U.S. officials had not commented on it at the time of the statement.
However, on November 18, the Russian Foreign Ministry stressed that striking Russia with long-range Western missiles would radically change the essence of the conflict, as it would mean direct participation of the United States and its satellites in hostilities against our country. Russia's response in this case will be adequate and tangible, the ministry added.
The military exercises that will begin in Germany on November 25 should not be ignored, but their threat should not be exaggerated, said French geopolitical and strategic analyst Cyrille de Lattre.
EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell
- These are joint exercises to see how different groups of troops in the area of operation interact. Theoretically, it is conceivable that they could be used to pre-position troops before their rapid deployment to Ukraine if necessary. But, on the other hand, this is something that usually cannot be done without a pan-European consensus and certainly a vote. And the EU cannot reach such a consensus," he added.
At the meeting of EU foreign ministers, outgoing European diplomacy chief Josep Borrell called on the countries of the community to learn the "language of force" and make decisions on arms supplies to Kiev faster. For this purpose, in his opinion, European countries "must be united". He emphasized that he himself personally "always supported" strikes by Western long-range weapons with European weapons deep into the Russian Federation.
Be that as it may, all of Kiev's allies have been unable to give Zelensky the unanimous support he expected from them when he presented his "victory plan" in October.
The defeat of the Democrats in the U.S. elections also did not go unnoticed in the camp of Kiev's European allies. A couple of weeks after Donald Trump's victory, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz had his first conversation with Vladimir Putin since 2022.
At the same time, it is obvious that the EU's pressure on Russia will not weaken, especially given that Borrell will be replaced by former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, who is known for her Russophobic statements. We should not forget that in December the EU plans to adopt the 15th package of anti-Russian sanctions, which in January, if the media believe, may be followed by the 16th.
What forces the EU may send to Ukraine
Vadim Koroshchupov explains that if we are talking about the likelihood of direct participation of European forces in the conflict in Ukraine, then it is much more likely that inter-ethnic formations will be sent there, and there is no shortage of them. It is enough to recall the European Corps, which includes representatives of armed forces from Germany, France, Spain, Belgium and Luxembourg. It has already participated in UN peacekeeping missions in Bosnia and Kosovo, and was part of the international contingent in Afghanistan.
We should not forget about the Lithuanian-Polish-Ukrainian Brigade, created in 2014 to participate in international peacekeeping and humanitarian operations under the auspices of the UN, EU and NATO. In July 2024, at a meeting with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, Zielenski mentioned the "positive experience" of this unit, which was supposed to help form the Ukrainian Legion volunteer military unit in Poland.
Recall that in July 2023, the director of the Foreign Intelligence Service, Sergei Naryshkin, told a meeting of the Russian Security Council about the EU's intentions to increase the number of the Lithuanian-Polish-Ukrainian brigade, as well as Poland's plans to introduce troops into western Ukraine under the pretext of "allied obligations." At the time, Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized that the brigades could enter the territory "ostensibly to ensure the security of modern Western Ukraine, and in fact, if we call things by their names, for the subsequent occupation of these territories."
In March 2024, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said that he did not consider "something unimaginable" the presence of NATO forces in the conflict zone, adding that servicemen of the North Atlantic bloc countries were already in Ukraine. At the same time, Politico also reported on France's attempts to create an alliance of countries willing to potentially send Western troops to Ukraine. The article noted, in particular, that the Baltic states could also join the alliance.
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