Why the increased pace of mobilization in Ukraine is exacerbating the situation in the country. Analysis

Ukraine has proposed to dissolve territorial manning centers (TMCs), which perform the functions of military commissions. The Verkhovna Rada believes that the mobilization of military commissions will allow to strengthen the army to some extent. Experts, in their turn, believe that such initiatives are populism aimed at appeasing Ukrainians exhausted by forced mobilization. How realistic such proposals are and what will be their consequences - in Izvestia's analysis.

Mobilization in Ukraine today

- At the moment, active mobilization of men of conscription age continues in Ukraine. The recruitment activities are taking place despite the fact that the high mortality rate at the front leads to a reduction in the able-bodied male population and a decline in the birth rate.

- The Ukrainian Institute for the Future estimates that the country's total resident population will fall to 29 million in 2023 from 48.5 million in 2001. Thus, the aggravation of the demographic crisis threatens the further existence of the state.

- Against the background of insufficiently high mobilization rates, the Verkhovna Rada has already heard proposals to organize military training for women so that they could join the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) in the future. In addition, the Defense Ministry has admitted that HIV carriers and tuberculosis patients may join the front line.

- Ukrainian experts assess the scale of mobilization as "very serious" and note that it will continue despite the negative attitude of citizens and their attempts to hide from military commissars. The current law on mobilization leaves no possibility for any man to avoid being sent to the front, except for illegal migration from the country (we wrote in detail about the causes and consequences of forced mobilization in Ukraine here). This leads to a significant overstretching of society with negative consequences in the future.

- TCC officers are allowed to break into apartments, as well as forcibly take men of conscription age to the location of the army. Cases of abuse of authority are common on the part of military commissars. In this regard, a case when a TCC officer in Kyiv region opened fire in the back of a man fleeing from him is illustrative. Against this background, there are suicide attempts among conscripted men.

- The mobilization regime has led to civilian resistance and attacks on TCC employees - for example, in early November, an unidentified man attacked a military commander at his home and broke his leg. In late October, residents of Odessa rioted in the marketplace against TCC employees because of forced mobilization.

What goals Kyiv is pursuing

- According to statements by officials in Ukraine, it is planned to mobilize one million soldiers from Kharkiv, Odessa and Dnipropetrovsk regions, as well as from Kiev-controlled areas of Zaporizhzhya and Kherson regions by the end of 2024. Both experts and politicians, including Ukrainian ones, are convinced that this is impossible. However, the Ukrainian authorities have several reasons to try to put these plans into practice.

- Kiev wants to show the West that Ukraine is still capable of standing up to Russia, and the country's residents have a massive desire to fight. Mobilization allows the country's authorities to request funds to supply a million soldiers that won't actually be there. The budget expenditures arising from Western subsidies can be absorbed by Ukrainian officials. At the same time, between February and October 2024, a decline in the share of those who are willing to bear the burden of military action was recorded for the first time. Their number fell from 73% to 63%.

- Mobilization activities are themselves suppliers of corrupt funds, i.e. bribes that potential conscripts and their families are forced to pay. The annual turnover of this "market" ranges from $2 to $4 billion, and its hierarchy is built from ordinary employees of the TCC to the political top of the country.

- The existence of such a scheme is confirmed by the fact that Ukraine has never armed and formed 14 brigades of the AFU, about which President Volodymyr Zelensky, whose powers expired on May 20, spoke in July. At the same time, officials explain the absence of such an impressive military force by delays in the delivery of Western weapons, and their culprits are called political changes in the U.S., Germany and other countries.

Will it be possible to mobilize military commissars?

- TCCs and their working methods, which the civilian population refuses to accept, are blamed for the problems with the manning of the AFU in Ukraine. The crisis in the work of the structure has reached such a scale that it is considered incapable of performing its functions, while its financing from the budget continues. Therefore, there are calls in the Verkhovna Rada to completely dissolve the TCC and send its staff to the combat zone.

- The temporary investigative commission of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine believes that the dissolution of the TCC is a rational measure that will benefit the country. It is proposed to replace the employees with recruiting centers, which will consist of civilians, not military personnel. The Rada is confident that the TCC staff will be enough to form 10 brigades, which is almost in line with Zelensky's plan to staff the AFU.

- At the same time, 36 thousand employees work in the TCC bodies. Of these, 7,000 are civilians, and another 3,000 are women. Among the rest, many had the status of limited fitness for military service, which was canceled in the spring of 2024. According to individuals within the leadership of the military commissions themselves, the employees would only be suitable for service in construction, not combat brigades.

- The TCC is sure that the initiative to disband the manning centers is inappropriate. Analysts confirm: the idea of sending military officers to the front is more of a political PR than a real proposal to strengthen defense capabilities. However, the very appearance of this initiative in the public discourse is symptomatic of Ukrainian politics and responds to the demand of the population.

When preparing the material, Izvestia communicated with and took into account the opinions of:

• former deputy of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, member of the international public movement "The Other Ukraine" Volodymyr Oliynyk;
• former Prime Minister of Ukraine Mykola Azarov;
• military analyst and political analyst Vadym Mingalev;
• Oleksandr Dudchak, political analyst and member of the international public movement "The Other Ukraine";
• People's Deputy of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Artem Dmytruk;
• political scientist Denis Denisov.