Expert forecasts Brent oil price by the end of 2024

Technical analysis shows that a breakdown of the level of $68.5 per barrel of Brent oil may open the way to the price zone of $40-50. Now the pressure on oil quotes is exerted by the strengthening of the dollar and the revision of expectations for a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve after the latest statements of the head of the agency Jerome Powell. This was stated by BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov on November 18.

"Serious risks for oil prices are associated with the slowdown of the Chinese economy, which can significantly reduce demand. In this situation, even a relatively small increase in production in the United States (forecasted to grow by only 300 thousand barrels per day by 2025) can upset the balance of supply and demand," he explained.

According to the expert, at the same time, the fall may not take place or be short-term, if geopolitical tensions remain in some regions of the world, for example, in the Middle East - this can keep prices above $65.5 per barrel. In addition, OPEC+ is likely to respond to lower prices with additional production cuts, he noted.

"Even a temporary drop in prices to $40-50 will be tangible for the Russian economy, but not critical thanks to the budget rule, accumulated reserves and conservative budget assumptions on oil prices. In addition, the current damper mechanism allows smoothing the impact of oil price fluctuations on the domestic market," Antonov summarized.

Earlier in the day, Reuters also reported that oil prices are rising globally amid the escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with Brent adding 0.3%. The agency hinted that the rise in commodity prices could also have been influenced by news that US President Joe Biden had authorized Ukraine to use US-made weapons to strike Russia.

According to the London-based ICE Futures exchange at 17:22 on November 18, the price of Brent per barrel was $71.83. Before that, on November 5, it reached $75.5.

Back in late October, Sergei Tereshkin, founder and CEO of the Open Oil Market marketplace, gave Izvestia a forecast that the average price of Brent crude oil would fall below $70 per barrel in 2025. According to him, the market will be increasingly influenced by long-term factors, including stabilization of global demand.