Why Israel needs a full-scale conflict in the Middle East. Parsing

Over the past few months, Israel has increased the number of attacks and operations carried out against Arab countries in the Middle East and their proxy groups. Experts say the country's stance is obviously pro-war and note that Israel is trying to provoke a major conflict. Why Tel Aviv is striving for war and whether the country's economy can withstand it - in Izvestia's analysis.

It is trying to provoke a provocation

- The situation in the Middle East became very heated in mid-September. Early last week, members of Lebanon's Shiite armed group Hezbollah were attacked: explosions of pagers and walkie-talkies they used for communication led to more than 30 casualties, affecting about 4,000 people. Lebanon and Israel soon exchanged airstrikes, Tel Aviv announced a large-scale operation in the north, and as Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah spoke, Israeli fighter jets flew low over Beirut. Nasrallah said the group considers Israel the organizer of the communications bombing and considers the operation a declaration of war. Tel Aviv, on the other hand, explained its actions by saying that Hezbollah was preparing a plan to invade the Jewish state's northern territories, according to intelligence reports.

- Over the past few months, Israel has stepped up its military action in the region, taking an apparently pro-war stance. On July 30, a strike on Hezbollah facilities in Beirut resulted in the elimination of one of the group's commanders, Fuad Shokr. The next day, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in a strike on his residence in Tehran. Against this backdrop, there are regular reports of IDF strikes in Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. Not surprisingly, at the Doha talks in August between Iran and Israel, attended by mediators from the US, Egypt and Qatar, Tel Aviv was in no mood to make concessions. The purpose of that meeting was to prevent war in the region over the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, but a peaceful resolution of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict was also discussed . It is not known if this was the result of that meeting, but so far Iran has not launched a promised "retaliatory strike" against Israel, which it blames for Haniyeh's death.

- A peaceful settlement could not be reached, nor could an escalation of the situation in the Middle East be avoided. Taking advantage of the fact that there are no active military actions against Hamas, Israel has shifted its attention to the northern border, especially since the Israeli Cabinet considers Hezbollah a more dangerous enemy. Thus, the Defense Ministry said that the possibility of a peaceful resolution of the situation there is going away as Hezbollah is increasingly "tying itself" to Hamas.

- At the same time, cooperation with Hamas is natural for the group, according to the expert community, as one of the tasks of the formation at its creation more than 40 years ago was to oppose Israel.

- Last week, a series of attacks against Hezbollah, some of which Tel Aviv conducted openly, severely undermined the organization's capabilities. First the communications system was attacked, the next day the infrastructure. More than 100 military facilities were hit. On September 20, Israel struck a suburb of Beirut. According to media reports, its aim was to eliminate a high-ranking Hezbollah commander.

- The series of attacks can be perceived in two ways, to consider it both a preparation for a large-scale conflict and a preemptive strike, the expert community believes. Containment of the Lebanese group and pro-Iranian proxies is now a priority for Tel Aviv. It can be assumed that Israel will not unwind the escalation spiral to the end, but analysts agree that it is profitable for it to provoke a series of "retaliatory actions" on the part of Shiite groups, primarily pro-Iranian. This is because the steps that Western countries and Iran are taking toward each other are at odds with Israeli policy, and the image of Iran as an aggressor will benefit the Jewish state.

Why Israel needs war

- The country is currently governed by a right-wing cabinet headed by Benjamin Netanyahu. Former Prime Minister Yair Lapid, who is leaving in 2022 , called it "the most extremist in Israel's history." The expert community believes the cabinet is pressuring Netanyahu to increase pressure on Arab states.

- If the ministers' position is countered, there is a risk of disbanding the cabinet, which Netanyahu was able to assemble with difficulty. Then he himself will lose his post and, given the failures of the past year, will not be able to return. Moreover, there is a risk of criminal prosecution against him if the next government begins to look into why Israel was unprepared for the October 7 Hamas attack. In addition, some of Israel's operations in Gaza and Beirut could be considered terrorist.

- Since the October Hamas attack on Israel, the Prime Minister has made several high-profile statements promising to eliminate the group in a short period of time, but he has not yet been able to keep his word. Hamas is still a serious contender, and Israeli citizens remain hostage. Escalation in the region will in any case undermine the strength of the paramilitary groups, which will bring Tel Aviv closer to its goal.

Will Israel's economy be able to cope with the escalation

- Israel's economy is currently in the process of recovering from the shock of the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023. This is evidenced by quotations on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange and the shekel exchange rate against major currencies, which have returned to previous levels.

- A number of negative phenomena nevertheless remain. High unemployment has returned to the country, GDP levels are slowly recovering from a 19% drop in Q4 2023, and exports are declining. Important sectors of Israel's economy, such as high-tech, agriculture and tourism, have been hit. Against this background, the call-up of 300,000 reservists in the fall further aggravated the situation. Rising defense spending has led to a growing budget deficit and an increase in the national debt. There is also tension in the society, as the main capacities are directed to the military-industrial complex at the expense of the social sector. The country's economy is so far coping with the hostilities in the south, but the opening of the northern direction could well lead to a full-blown crisis.

Consequences of escalation

- Although strikes are currently being exchanged between Israel and the Lebanese group, much will depend on Iran. If Tehran succumbs to provocation and uses force in response to strikes against Beirut and Hezbollah members, a large-scale confrontation is possible in the region, which would play into Israel's hands. In this case, military action by pro-Iranian proxies, including Hezbollah, could complicate the global economy by creating restrictions on the movement of ships in the Red Sea. This would trigger a sharp fluctuation in oil prices.

- Currently, an escalation of this level in the Middle East is not favorable to the U.S. either, as active involvement in several major conflicts will complicate the economic situation in the country. In addition, the US is currently in the midst of an election race, during which the Democratic administration must demonstrate stability to the voters.

- This is also a factor that keeps U.S. hands tied and gives Israel relative freedom of action. If President Joe Biden's administration begins to take real action to contain the conflict, the Republican Party's rival, which will take a pro-Israeli stance, could score points. Presumably, Netanyahu will try to use this window to pursue his pro-war policy and achieve his goals.

In preparing the material Izvestia talked to:

• political scientist, Middle East expert Alexander Kargin;
• political scientist, orientalist Andrei Ontikov;
• political scientist Movses Ghazaryan