Operation Evacuation: why residents of Lithuania and Poland are fleeing from the Suwalki corridor

In May 2025, there was a massive outflow of the local population, both Poles and Lithuanians, in the Suwalki corridor on the Lithuanian-Polish border. According to Bild, residents began to fear a possible attack in this strategic region after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced the lifting of restrictions on strikes against Russia with long-range weapons. A few years ago, the Lithuanian authorities began to neuroticize their own population. Officials promised to develop an evacuation plan for residents in case of a foreign invasion, and also recommended preparing "alarm cases."Details can be found in the Izvestia article.

Suwalki Corridor: what is happening in May 2025

In May 2025, there was a massive outflow of the local population, both Poles and Lithuanians, in the Suwalki corridor on the Lithuanian-Polish border. According to Bild, residents began to fear a possible attack in this strategic region after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced the lifting of restrictions on strikes against Russia with long-range weapons.

At the same time, State Duma deputy Andrei Kolesnik said that rumors of a mass exodus of residents from the Suwalki corridor area were greatly exaggerated. The parliamentarian also warned that any attempts by Poland to escalate the situation towards Russia would lead to serious consequences.

"Let Poland not fool around, do not intimidate its residents, otherwise it has not started yet, and they already have losses from heart attacks," the deputy added.

Ark of Salvation: plans for 2022

In 2022, Lithuanian Interior Minister Agne Bilotaite announced that the country's authorities would develop a national evacuation plan by early October. "We are at the forefront, the country is being subjected to hybrid attacks, sabotage has become our reality, and civilian protection needs to be adapted to military threats. Now each municipality has its own evacuation plan, but in the current conditions we must have a national plan," the minister said.

At the same time, the media speculate about what this plan might look like. It is noted that, in fact, there are no safe land options. The fact is that the republic borders Belarus, the Russian Kaliningrad region and Latvia, where they also fear invasion. In addition, there is a small border with Poland, this section — the so—called Suwalki corridor - is considered the most dangerous, allegedly this is the segment Russia wants to seize in order to prevent the Baltic States from connecting with other NATO countries.

As a result, the idea of a marine evacuation is being seriously discussed. In early August, the director of the Klaipeda port, Algis Latakas, said that the capacity should be enough to transport hundreds of thousands of people. "We have 11 large ferries and other vessels operating in our port that can transport people. If attention is focused on this aspect, then thousands of people can be accommodated on these ferries without observing comfortable conditions," he reasoned.

To an outsider, all these discussions look rather strange. Lithuania's population stands at 2.8 million people, and a dozen ships will take out such a mass of people for months. In addition, nothing is known yet that any country is ready to host Lithuanians. Some local politicians are also talking about this. For example, opposition MP Arturas Skardjus is ironic, advising the authorities to build a new Noah's Ark so that Lithuanians can wait out the troubled time at sea.

Suitcases with a hairdryer

Officials are not limited to evacuation issues only. In early September, Lithuanian Defense Minister Laurinas Kaschiunas presented a brochure entitled "If there is a crisis or a war: How to behave?", which provides recommendations for preparing for an emergency situation. The head of the military department said that in the near future the booklet will be printed in an edition of 900 thousand copies and will be sent free of charge to all mailboxes, handed over to every Lithuanian family.

The journalists carefully studied the contents of the publication. In one of the chapters, residents of the republic are advised to prepare an "alarming suitcase." It is recommended to collect canned food, dried meat, nuts, halva and breadcrumbs from food, it is recommended to take water at the rate of 3-4 liters per day per person. It is especially noted that water from toilet cisterns can also be drunk if it is not stagnant. In addition, the drafters recommend preparing lighters, candles, matches, a battery—powered radio, a fire extinguisher, and even a hair dryer - the latter is supposedly useful to dry clothes and shoes.

In addition, military exercises are regularly held in Lithuania, and the civilian population unwittingly becomes a participant in some of them. So, during the event called "Thunder of Perkunas", Lithuanian security forces imposed curfews in Vilnius and Kaunas, set up roadblocks, began checking people's documents, staged detentions of armed militants and even explosions. The mayor of Vilnius, Valdas Benkunskas, later complained that residents seemed to have been informed about the maneuvers in advance, but many still began to panic.

During a number of other exercises in Lithuania, an air alert was activated, while residents were tasked with evacuating to a shelter within ten minutes. In July, the country's authorities developed a program under which 50 new warning sirens will be installed in Vilnius, and 275 devices will be installed across the country. In addition, the development of a mobile application will begin, where data on air hazards will be published, and €18 million will be spent on the implementation of the ambitious program.

At the same time, Lithuania is rapidly militarizing. Defense spending in the amount of 2.7% of GDP was included in the budget for this year, while Vilnius allocated several additional tranches, as a result, the figure will reach 3.2% by the end of the year. In early September, President Gitanas Nauseda announced that next year defense spending should amount to 3.5% of GDP. According to him, these expenses should not be considered expenses, but investments in security that will ensure well-being.

Lithuania is also increasing the size of its army, universal military service will be in effect in the country from 2026, and all school graduates will have to undergo military training. The republic is also preparing to deploy a German brigade on its territory, and construction of barracks and training ground equipment began at the end of August on the border with Belarus. In addition, new weapons are constantly being purchased. So, just over the past month, Vilnius has agreed to receive drones, missiles for air defense systems and American army SUVs.

In such conditions, more and more Lithuanian residents are afraid of fighting. According to one study, 17% were afraid of war last year, and now 50% are afraid at once. At the same time, the media claim that Lithuanians are in no hurry to turn to psychologists, more often they try to cope with anxiety through alcohol and gambling. Economists also say that military rhetoric scares foreign investors, and last year the republic dropped four positions in the European investment attractiveness rating.

Running in a bag

Political analyst Alexander Nosovich believes that the decisions and statements of Lithuanian politicians should not be linked to the conflict in Ukraine.

— Paranoia and espionage began not only before the SVR, but also before the Maidan in 2013. It's all about the peculiarities of the political culture of the Lithuanian elites, who are experiencing phantom pains because of the history of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania. They know that Lithuania was once a significant state, and they are doing everything to remind the population and other countries of themselves now," he says.

Vsevolod Shimov, adviser to the president of the Russian Association of Baltic Studies, says that in a sense, the anxiety of the Lithuanian authorities can be understood.

— In the event of a hypothetical escalation in the region, Lithuania will find itself at the epicenter of events. This republic, together with Poland, locks the notorious Suwalki corridor, through which land communication between the Baltic States and the rest of the EU countries is carried out. If it is blocked, the Baltic States will turn into a real bag for all NATO forces stationed there. In addition, transport communications that connect Russia with the Kaliningrad Region pass through Lithuania," he notes.

The expert adds that Lithuania itself is doing a lot to escalate tensions.

— The situation in the Baltic Sea region is indeed quite alarming. But it is obvious that Russia is not interested in unleashing a conflict and a direct clash with NATO, especially while the war in Ukraine is going on. A conflict can break out only in the case of unacceptable provocations, for example, the blockade of the Kaliningrad region," he notes.